The president has dominated Turkish politics for more than two decades, and the question of succession has long been taboo. However, a potential candidate now seems to be emerging.
In a country where everything is orchestrated by Erdogan and his inner circle, the president’s youngest son has become much more visible. There are now regular reports of Bilal Erdogan’s activities on the state news agency. His father has taken him on several trips abroad during his current presidency, from meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to visits to Pakistan, Malaysia and Qatar.
The transition of power has become a frequent topic of discussion behind closed doors in the ranks of the ruling AK Party in Ankara, according to people familiar with the process. Bilal’s entry into politics is now under consideration, with the prospect of possibly emerging as a leader, the same sources said on condition of anonymity.
Who will eventually succeed its longest-serving leader has been a persistent question for foreign investors and ordinary Turkish citizens for years. But within Erdogan’s political movement, the 71-year-old remains a cult figure and any talk of his health or what comes next is hushed up.
What does Bilal say about the succession?
The second of Erdogan’s four children, Bilal, 44, has denied having immediate political ambitions. It’s also early for any potential succession planning, which could backfire with voters.
However, the stars seem to be aligning for Erdogan. At home, economic indicators – from inflation to central bank reserves – have improved since the 2023 election and his main rival has been sidelined. Abroad, Turkey is playing a bigger role in shaping the Middle East.
Bilal, who has a master’s degree in public policy from Harvard University, is receiving informal political leadership training and building a network of loyal supporters, according to people familiar with the situation. He is closely involved in the selection of senior officials for both the AKP and the government, they said.
In an interview in late January on Atheer, a Qatari Al Jazeera Media Network podcast, Bilal said it is good for other Islamic countries to have a successful Turkey and hinted at what should come after his father.
“Tayyip Erdogan worked for this and continues to work,” Bilal said. “I think that we, who will come after him – whether in politics, social life, civil society or education – should also work to achieve and raise the same spirit.”
Rexep in the presidency until 2028
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey since 2003, is formally in his last presidential term until 2028, but his entourage is seeking an extension through early elections or constitutional revision.
His main rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, is in prison and at risk of being disqualified from the election process, boosting Erdogan’s chances of re-election.
If he wins, the president could prepare his son Bilal to succeed him, either through the leadership of the AKP or by appointing him to a government position. Despite uncertainty over the success of these plans, Erdogan’s international clout and limited domestic backlash bolster his position.
The biggest danger for Erdogan
The main risk for Erdogan is the cost-of-living crisis, which threatens to erode his popular support, although a gradual easing of inflation may improve the mood ahead of elections.
At the same time, the future of the peace process with the Kurds remains uncertain, which could either be presented as a political success or, if it fails, lead to a harder nationalist line.
At the same time, Erdogan retains full control of his party, which allows him to determine the succession, with Bilal Erdogan touted as a possible successor thanks to his religious profile, ties to Islamic circles and public presence.
