The new round of the Genial/Quaest electoral survey, analyzed in Risk Mappolicy program of the InfoMoneythis Friday (13), indicates a relevant change in the dynamics of the presidential race.
The difference between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a possible second round fell from 16 percentage points, in August 2025, to 5 points now. Lula appears with 43% of voting intentions, while Flávio registers 38%.
Although the president still leads in all tested scenarios, narrowing was the central point of discussion on the program. For analysts, the movement consolidates Flávio’s candidacy on the right and increases the pressure on center voters.
Opportunity with security!
“Flávio’s growth serves to consolidate his candidacy within the opposition pole”, stated XP political analyst, Paulo Gama. He considers, however, that progress still does not guarantee automatic support from center parties.
“Still, due to the scenario of the second round and the still high rejections, it is insufficient to make this Centrão have the courage to sponsor an opposition candidacy.”
In the debate, analysts highlighted that the election tends to repeat the logic of 2022, with a greater weight of rejection than of base expansion. “This is heading towards being an election of rejection again”, assessed Gama. “We will probably be a battle there again, as it was in 2022, over who voters least want to see in the presidency of the Republic.”
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The survey also shows 45% approval of the government and 49% disapproval. Among independent voters, rejection is high on both sides, which, according to the program, turns this group into the balance of the dispute.
For XP political analyst João Paulo Machado, another relevant point is the speed of vote transfer within the Bolsonarist camp. “In the political world, many people even say they are surprised by the speed of the vote transfer from former president Jair Bolsonaro to his son. Everyone imagined that this transfer would happen to a certain degree, but not as quickly as it happened.”
He added that the room for growth within the most loyal base may be close to the limit. “Many people, including in Centrão, say that the transfer has already been made, that there is no longer much room for advancement in Bolsonarism, specifically, for the better in Flávio Bolsonaro’s polls, because he has already incorporated his father’s votes there.”
Political calculation
In this scenario, the challenge becomes the moderate voter. “What Flávio now has to advance is in the votes of the Center,” said Machado, remembering that it was this segment that guaranteed Lula a decisive advantage in 2022.
On the government side, the warning is about the stagnation of positive evaluation. “It brings some points of concern for the government candidacy, because we see a certain stabilization there (…) in the approval of voters who consider the government to be excellent and good”, stated Gama on the program.
For Risk Map analysts, Centrão’s behavior reflects this uncertainty. After a period in which part of the parties were betting on the viability of an alternative right-wing candidacy, such as that of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), Jair Bolsonaro’s public support for his son reorganized the board. Still, the assessment is cautious.
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“The clearest, safest scenario for all these center parties is to take a step back, wait a little longer for this definition,” said Gama.
The predominant reading in the program is that 2026 is already beginning to influence alliances, regional strategies and Congress’ behavior. With the narrower difference and high rejection on both sides, the dispute tends to be defined less by base expansion and more by the ability to reduce resistance.
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