North Korea has laid the foundations to resume the talks con USA: Neither will Seoul market its nuclear arsenal nor will Seoul intervene. The conditional invitation comes during the party Congress, held every five years, in which Kim Jong-un has been re-elected unanimously. From that strength he has encouraged Donald Trump to finish what they started in 2019 even though North Korea does not appear in their urgent matters folder.
“If the United States respects our nuclear statehood and avoids its hostile policies, there is no reason to get along badly,” Kim said. The decision, he clarified, is Washington’s: “We are ready for both peaceful coexistence and permanent confrontation, and the choice is not ours.”
Trump’s re-election has restored hopes for dialogue in a conflict that has dragged the United States down for more than 70 years. In his first term, he negotiated with Kim in Hanoi and Singapore the “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization of North Korea in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the normalization of relationships. Only a handful of photos emerged from that for the newspaper archive and years later Pyongyang included nuclear statehood in its Constitution. The decision, he insisted, is irreversible. “The concept of denuclearization has ceased to make sense. That is the last thing they can expect from us,” Kim said in Parliament in September.
The question, then, is what Trump and Kim will negotiate. The most feasible option, and already accepted by Seoul, is the freezing of the nuclear program. But compared to denuclearization it seems a too humble objective and past agreements have already accredited the chimerical control of a country pierced by secret tunnels. “I don’t think Trump is as interested in that goal as being on television. Supervision would be very complicated and the problem would have to be assumed by the next administration,” says Ramón Pacheco, professor of International Relations at King College London and expert on North Korea.
50 warheads and material to manufacture 40 more
Denuclearization has been a priority for every American president since Pyongyang embarked on the program more than two decades ago. Trump also cited North Korea in his international road map in his first term and warned of its nuclear threat. In last year’s, however, he omitted that claim. His posture is more realistic than that of his predecessor, Joe Biden: North Korea is a nuclear state, whether Washington accepts it or not, and that is the playing field.
North Korea has not stopped arming itself to the teeth since Trump left Hanoi without even waiting for the banquet. He Stockholm Peace Research Institutethe most prestigious think tank on weapons in the world, estimates that North Korea has about 50 warheads and enough material to manufacture another 40. Much of what Kim anticipated at the previous congress, held in 2021, has already been successfully tested: solid fuel intercontinental missiles, hypersonic missiles, military satellites… He enjoys a comfortable position now, the economic anguish of the pandemic having been overcome, and he has regained harmony with China and strengthened its military alliance with Russia. These are ideal conditions for negotiating and Trump’s imminent visit to Beijing has triggered the rumors. The only thing that gets in the way, Pacheco points out, is the Chinese ego. “I don’t think China would like to be another part of the presidential trip to the region and it is possible that it will push to be his only stop in Asia. But there will be more possibilities this year. For example, if Trump visits Japan.”
Veto to Seoul
About the neighbor below, however, Pyongyang does not want to know anything. The previous negotiations were oiled by the president Moon Jae-intireless fighter for peace. The incumbent, Lee Jae Myung, has also courted Kim. But Pyongyang burned the bridges in 2024, renouncing the historic objective of peaceful reunification and declaring the south an eternal enemy. This Thursday, Kim threatened Seoul with “absolute destruction” if national security is at stake and “permanently excluded” South Koreans “from the category of compatriots.” “Given that South Korea cannot escape the geopolitical conditions of sharing a border with us, the only possibility for them to live safely is to give up and leave us alone,” he recommended.
Seoul has regretted that the north remains mired in hostility and promised that it will continue to “patiently” strive to stabilize peace. Lee faces the same challenge of persevering stoicism that Moon already went through.
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