New research suggests that the storms were not just an extreme weather event, but the reflection of a deeply altered ocean.
According to international scientists, The Atlantic had abnormally high temperatures —up to ten times more likely due to climate change—when a succession of storms caused massive flooding in the Iberian Peninsula.
Between mid-January and February, nine chain storms left a devastating toll on six dead in Portugal, more than 12,000 evacuated in Spain and of course enormous material damage in both countries.
The economic impact has also been notable. Spain has mobilized some 7,000 million euros in aid, while Portugal estimates losses close to 6 billion, which represents more than 1.5% of its GDP.
Heavier rains in a warmer climate
The analysis was carried out by the World Weather Attribution scientific group, specialized in studying the influence of climate change on extreme phenomena.
The team examined two specific episodes of heavy rain:
- One in northwest Spain and Portugal
- Another in the south of the Peninsula and the north of Morocco
The results show a significant increase in the intensity of precipitation, with almost 40% more than expected in the north and 30% in the south. In simple terms, the rainiest days now discharge about a third more water than before human emissions warmed the planet.
To measure the impact of climate changescientists compared simulations of the current climate with scenarios without global warming. In the north, the models were clear: extreme rainfall is more intense today due to human influence.
The role of the Atlantic
One of the most decisive factors was the temperature of the ocean. The storms were fueled by a phenomenon known as atmospheric river: a moisture-laden air current that transports water vapor over long distances.
In this case, the system crossed an exceptionally warm area of the Atlantic. That heat allowed it to absorb more humidity before reaching land.
The result:
- More vapor in the atmosphere
- Greater water load in the clouds
- Heaviest rains upon hitting the ground
According to the researchers, this marine heat wave was ten times more likely in the context of current climate change than in a normal situation.
Chained storms
Additionally, a persistent atmospheric pattern—an area of high pressure that diverted air currents—contributed to the storms They continued without respite for weeks.
This type of lock:
- Channels storms towards the same region
- Prolongs rain events
- Increases the risk of flooding
Scientists are still investigating whether global warming is increasing the frequency of these patterns.
Fewer victims, but great losses
Despite the magnitude of the phenomenon, the number of deaths – 49 in total between Spain, Portugal and Morocco – was relatively low.
This was largely due to early warning systems, preventive evacuations and the best preparation for climatic emergencies that currently exist.
However, these measures cannot protect infrastructure or economies, as the consequences can be devastating in terms of destroyed homes, devastated crops and collapsed infrastructure, causing widespread chaos.
In Portugal, for example, one of the main roads sank during a storm and will take weeks to repair.
A risk that goes beyond people
Experts from the Red Cross Climate Center emphasize that, although evacuations save lives, They do not eliminate structural risk. The population can be removed from danger, but not houses, roads, workplaces or cultural heritage.
As the ocean continues to warm, episodes like this winter could become more frequent, remembering that true vulnerability is not always in people, but in the environment that supports them.
