In the main confrontation tested, Flávio records 35.3% of voting intentions, while Lula has 39.6%
The Instituto Paraná Pesquisas released this Friday (27), a survey that shows the possible electoral scenario for the presidency of Brazil. The second round simulations show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) technically tied.
The stimulated scenario of the first round shows the President Lula with 39.6% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 35.3% of voting intentions. In relation to the January survey, Lula maintains the percentage within the margin of error, going from 39.8% to 39.6%. Flávio rose two percentage points, from 33.1% to 35.3%. They don’t know or didn’t have an opinion, they represent 5% and White and Null, 6.7%.
Disclosure/Paraná Pesquisa
Em eventual second round between the two, Lula scores 43.8% and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) has 44.4%. A result that would give numerical victory to the current senator from Rio de Janeiro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. They do not know or did not have an opinion, representing 6.9%, White and Null, 5.0%.
Disclosure/Paraná Pesquisa
A survey was also carried out on those who believe whether President Lula should be re-elected or not. 52.2% think he should not be re-elected and 43.9% think he deserves to be re-elected.
The institute also tested Lula against other names from the right and center-right. Against the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr (PSD-PR), the PT member registered 43.6%, compared to 39.7% for his opponent. In dispute with the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD-GO), Lula has 45.3%, while she has 36.2%.
Data collection for the research was carried out through personal home and face-to-face interviews, between February 22nd and 25th, 2026considering the voting population aged 16 and over. The survey has an estimated error of 2.2 percentage points for the overall results.
