The governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), appears in a competitive position in the scenarios tested by Paraná Pesquisas for the 2026 presidential election. The survey released this Friday (27) shows that he already appears as a viable alternative in the right-wing camp and is technically tied with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in a possible second round.
In the direct confrontation, Lula and Ratinho appear within the margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, signaling that the governor is no longer just a hypothesis and has become part of the group of names capable of polarizing the national dispute.
The performance reinforces the PSD’s strategy of maintaining Ratinho as a center-right option with a less confrontational speech. The party seeks to occupy space among voters who reject the Lula government, but do not necessarily adhere to the more ideological core of Bolsonarism.
The survey itself indicates that 52.2% of Brazilians believe that Lula does not deserve re-election, which expands the potential field for alternative candidates.
The PSD challenge
Despite numerical viability, the political scenario imposes obstacles to the PSD. The same survey points to the consolidation of senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the main name on the right. In a second round simulation against Lula, Flávio appears numerically ahead, although within the margin of error.
This data suggests that a relevant part of the conservative electorate is already reorganizing around the surname Bolsonaro. The migration of the more ideological base to Flávio reduces Ratinho Jr.’s space for growth within the more mobilized right.
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The performance of the governor of Paraná indicates that there is room for a discourse on management and administrative stability. However, to advance beyond the competitive condition, Ratinho Jr. would depend on a greater fragmentation of the Bolsonarista camp or a redefinition of party alliances.
Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 2,080 voters in 159 municipalities between February 22 and 25, 2026. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points and the confidence level is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-07974/2026.
