The right-wing demonstration on Avenida Paulista, this Sunday (1st), served as a thermometer not only for Bolsonaro’s mobilization, but also for Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) electoral strategy.
Pre-candidate for the Presidency, the senator adopted a less confrontational speech with the Federal Supreme Court (STF) than allies who preceded him on the stage, signaling an attempt to reposition Bolsonarism for 2026.
Flávio focused his criticism on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and reinforced the narrative of political persecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, arrested in Complexo da Papuda for an attempted coup d’état. He promised that, if elected, he would grant him amnesty and stated that, in January 2027, his father “will personally walk up the ramp of the Palácio do Planalto”.
When dealing with the Judiciary, the senator avoided nominal attacks on Court ministers. He spoke about censorship on social media, Federal Police operations against “innocent people” and the use of electronic ankle bracelets, but did not mention the STF directly in the opening of his speech.
In the final section, he defended the impeachment of ministers who “break the law”, but stated that “our target was never the Supreme Court” and that the institution is “fundamental to democracy”.
The tone contrasted with that of other participants in the act. Deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) mentioned minister Alexandre de Moraes by name and stated that the magistrate’s fate “is not impeachment, it is jail”.
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Pastor Silas Malafaia also harshly criticized the minister. The difference in approach highlighted a strategic division on how to confront the Judiciary in a pre-election year.
The change in tone is not trivial. During Jair Bolsonaro’s government, street demonstrations were frequently used as a stage for direct attacks on the STF, increasing the level of institutional tension.
By modulating the speech, Flávio preserves the central agenda of the base — amnesty and release of his father —, but reduces the frontal clash with the Court, in a movement that may seek to expand its acceptance beyond the most radicalized core.
Waves and internal dispute
The senator also dedicated a relevant part of his speech to political gestures. He thanked by name the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans); to Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB); to the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo); and the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). The strategy reinforces the attempt to build an image of broad articulation within the right.
The gesture occurs amid noise in the Bolsonarist camp. The call for the act by Nikolas Ferreira, with the motto “Lula out, Moraes out and Toffoli out”, was interpreted by allies as a shift in the focus of amnesty, a banner considered central by the group most loyal to the former president.
In recent weeks, differences have become public. Former deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro demanded explicit support from former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Nikolas for Flávio’s pre-candidacy. The reaction of allies and the mobilization of militancy on the networks increased the perception of a dispute for protagonism within the PL and the former president’s surroundings.
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By stating on the platform that the act “is not electoral” and that the pre-candidates present “are not competing for votes”, Flávio sought to reduce the interpretation of internal competition. The speech takes place while his name still faces resistance and while leaders like Tarcísio maintain relevant political capital among conservative voters.
Feasibility Test
The speech at Paulista indicates that Flávio is trying to balance two fronts: maintaining loyalty to the Bolsonarist narrative and, at the same time, softening the institutional confrontation to increase his electoral viability. The defense of the impeachment of ministers was maintained, but framed as an institutional instrument, not as a direct clash with the Court.
The movement suggests that the 2026 dispute will require more than street mobilization. In addition to militancy, the candidacy will need to dialogue with voters concerned about institutional stability and governability.
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The demonstration showed that there is room for less harsh speeches within the base. By opting for a less belligerent stance, Flávio tests whether he can present himself as his father’s political heir without fully reproducing the confrontational strategy that marked the previous cycle.
