The joint attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran that began last Saturday (28) cast doubt on the Iranian team’s participation in the World Cup, eventually even making the team’s presence in the competition unfeasible.
Specialists in International Relations and International Law emphasize that, although there are still many uncertainties surrounding the continuation of the armed conflict and its potential ramifications, it is a fact that the Iranian team’s preparation for the World Cup is already hampered by tension in the region.
“I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on Iran’s participation in the World Cup,” said Kai Lehmann, professor at IRI (Institute of International Relations) at USP (University of São Paulo).
According to him, given recent events, the security of the Iranian delegation on American soil is at high risk.
“The World Cup is worth a lot of money to the Iranian federation [cada federação recebe US$ 10,5 milhões da Fifa pela participação no torneio] and, given the crisis in the country, I think they would like to participate. On the other hand, at this moment, I don’t see how, in practical terms, this participation could happen, because no one could guarantee the safety of the cast and employees,” said Lehmann.
The IRI professor added that, with the conflicts in Iran and the death of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, it is difficult to predict what the situation in the Asian country itself will be in about three months, when the World Cup begins.
“It’s a system where the leader accumulates great power. So, who guarantees that there won’t be changes in the Iranian football federation by then?”, asked Lehmann.
Political scientist and coordinator of the International Relations course at the Mauá Institute of Technology, Rodrigo Gallo stated that, in the event of the Iran team’s exclusion from the World Cup, or if the team voluntarily withdraws from the tournament, as a protest, FIFA has precedents in the regulations to preserve the format of the competition — which will be contested by 48 teams — by appointing a replacement based on sporting criteria or via continental repechage.
“In addition, the entity’s disciplinary regulations provide for the possibility of sanctions for the federation involved, which may include fines, compensation for contractual losses and even suspensions in future competitions, depending on the circumstances and the basis for possible exclusion,” said Gallo.
Lawyer specializing in International Law, Daniel Toledo also stated that the most likely alternatives to replace Iran would be to call the next Asian qualifier or resort to the repechage system, always trying to maintain sporting coherence and reduce legal risk.
“Calling the team that was immediately behind Iran in the group or in the final qualifying phase is the simplest and most legally defensible criterion, because it preserves the sporting logic of the tournament,” said Toledo.
Iran confirmed its participation in the World Cup in March 2025, after a draw with Uzbekistan that guaranteed the Iranian team one of the direct places in Group A of the Asian Qualifiers. Uzbekistan itself also took one of the group’s direct places. Third placed, the United Arab Emirates competed in a play-off and were eliminated by Iraq.
Iran is in Group G of the World Cup, alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand, with games in Inglewood and Seattle, in the United States, and Vancouver, in Canada.
“In addition to the bombings of Iran, we were already dealing with the whole issue involving the American government’s anti-immigration policy and the actions of Ice”, stated Camylle Caldas, sports and IR researcher at the Postgraduate Program in International Relations at Uerj (State University of Rio de Janeiro).
“So, if Iran does indeed attend the World Cup, its games will always be marked by a lot of insecurity, even for the fans themselves and the Iranian community present,” said Camylle.
Toledo also added that FIFA, as a private entity governed by Swiss law, has its own statute and requires national federations to be independent of government interference. “In theory, armed conflicts do not automatically lead to exclusion from a selection.”
What could lead to suspension is non-compliance with FIFA rules or possible direct state intervention in the federation, said Toledo. “Therefore, just the fact that there are military attacks against Iran does not legally imply immediate exclusion from the selection.”
The expert also pointed out that a factor that cannot be ruled out is possible pressure from sponsors. The governance of modern football is highly dependent on billion-dollar commercial contracts, and sporting decisions often end up being influenced by reputational risks, said Toledo.
“From a legal point of view, any federation that feels harmed can appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport alleging a violation of the principle of sporting equality or an abrupt change in regulations. The CAS usually analyzes whether the decision respected objective criteria previously established in the competition regulations”, stated the lawyer.
When contacted, FIFA stated that it would not comment for the time being. “We had a meeting today and it would be premature to comment on it in detail. But, of course, we will follow developments on all issues around the world,” Mattias Grafstrom, FIFA’s general secretary, said on Saturday.
