Despite being one of the countries most affected by attacks on Iran, China remains on the sidelines of the conflict in the Middle East. Caution or disinterest?
In the midst of the conflict between the USA, Israel and Iran, there is one actor who seems particularly “cautious” in his statements and actions. China has always taken “ambiguous” and contained positions in world conflicts, recalls Jorge Tavares da Silva, professor of International Relations, but in the meantime a statement appeared this Tuesday that suggests, in the professor’s opinion, Beijing’s intention of greater involvement in what is happening.
As the US and Israel attacked Iran, China’s closest partner in the Middle East, announcing the death of and appealing to the Iranians, Beijing responded with harsh criticism, condemning the attacks and calling for restraint, but going no further.
This Tuesday, however, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, made it clear, in a statement issued shortly after a phone call with his Iranian counterpart, that Beijing will support the defense of Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity. Jorge Tavares da Silva, a specialist in Asian studies, considers that this declaration is “not on the same level” as previous, more cautious interventions.
In this statement, China “predisposes itself, in a very open manner, to support Iran in this conflict”, concludes Jorge Tavares da Silva. “We don’t know by what means, but it could be, for example, not only from a political point of view, but also from a technological point of view – logistical support, equipment, know-how“, suggests the teacher.
What is certain, for the expert on Asian affairs, based on this statement, is that China “seems willing to clearly support Iran’s sovereignty with equipment.”
This is because this conflict is of particular importance to Beijing, particularly due to its economic interests in the region. Just remember that China, being, therefore, one of the countries most affected by , is one of the main energy and commercial routes in the world.
But this argument does not convince Luís Mah, professor of International Studies, who believes that China “will find other solutions” to overcome the economic consequences of this conflict, seeking other suppliers of crude oil. “It could turn to Russia”, suggests the expert on Asian affairs, highlighting that Beijing has not only “been looking for a way to not become energy dependent on anywhere” but also “depends less and less on fuels for its economy”.
On the other hand, adds Luís Mah, China has to manage this conflict so as not to put other partnerships in the Persian Gulf at risk. In fact, in the phone call with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, the Chinese Foreign Minister made a point of stressing that Tehran must respond to the “legitimate concerns of its neighbors”, several of which are in retaliation for the US and Israeli attacks.
“In other words, China cannot be on Iran’s side alone”, argues Luís Mah, adding that Beijing has to “find a balance” to equally defend the sovereignty of the other Persian Gulf countries.
“China will not get involved in a conflict that is not its own”
Second, the reality is that “China does not need Iran in the same way that Iran needs China.” In addition to importing more than 80% of Iranian crude oil exports, Beijing also recently sold vital technology to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including digital surveillance tools, which the regime used to suppress protests that recently erupted in several cities across the country, the newspaper reports.
Furthermore, China has made relatively few direct investments in Iran, despite promising otherwise as part of the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement reached between the two countries. “China committed to investing 400 billion in the country, but in fact the data we have is 3 billion. In other words, this cooperation doesn’t even seem to have advanced much”, observes Luís Mah.
That is why, in the International Studies professor’s opinion, Beijing’s role in this conflict “will be nothing more than this” of “mediating, moderating and trying to calm the situation”.
“China is not going to get involved in a conflict that is not its own. It is even interested in staying away from this conflict, because, by remaining quiet, those who will come out badly from this conflict are the United States and Israel in international terms”, he adds.
Although he anticipates that China can “find alternatives” for energy supplies, Jorge Tavares da Silva admits that a possible “threat” to the Chinese economy would be a reason to lead Xi Jinping to “react”, not putting “China’s greater involvement in this conflict out of the question”.
“This is a risk of any conflict. That is why wars are all to be avoided. Peace and diplomacy solutions must always be sought. When this is not possible, well, we do not know the consequences. Therefore, the possibility of spreading [do conflito] it’s there. It’s there and it can happen”, predicts Jorge Tavares da Silva.
