It responds to raids and attacks on military and energy infrastructure. Rockets, missiles and strikes on US bases are raising tensions dangerously high and the region looks ready to explode. The Straits of Hormuz are at risk, while the global oil market is on alert. The international community is anxiously watching the developments, while experts are trying to “read” the plans behind Tehran’s moves.
The “pressure strategy”…
Iran appears to be pursuing a deliberate strategy of “chaotic pressure” against Washington and Tel Aviv, responding to the very first airstrikes by attacking Israel and US military installations in the Gulf, launching missiles and drones. At least six US soldiers have been killed and civilian infrastructure such as hotels and airports have been hit, causing panic among Trump’s allies in Asia. The result is a “chain” crisis that threatens to trap the Gulf region in an unprecedented context of violence.
Tehran is also leveraging its regional allies. Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, avenging the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while pro-Iranian militias in Iraq launched attacks on US bases. The tension in the Middle East is not just about the region. It is expanding into maritime arteries, threatening trade networks as well: the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 1/5 of the world’s oil, has seen a significant decline in shipping, sending black gold prices soaring and causing concern in China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India and Europe.
Analysts and diplomats who spoke to the New York Times believe that Iran’s moves towards an expansion of the conflict in order to pressure the US at home and abroad are not accidental. Attacks on airports, hotels and energy facilities are causing problems for US allies in the Gulf and may even affect the US economy and political balance ahead of mid-term elections next November.
Tehran is playing the pressure card in a game it believes it has nothing to lose, while the risks to the stability of the region and the global economy are increasing dramatically.
…pushing allies into Washington’s lap?
However, according to Middle East analysts cited by Reuters, Iran’s attacks on six Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman – fundamentally change the diplomatic balance.
Specifically, they warn that Tehran’s strikes on US allies that host US bases may have the opposite effect: instead of forcing those states to pressure Trump to end the conflict, it pushes them into open cooperation with Washington and coordinated military actions against Iran.
Abdulaziz Sager, president of the Gulf Research Center think tank in Saudi Arabia, notes: “Gulf states now face clear choices: either participate more openly in the US effort, or risk further escalation on their soil.” Tehran’s attacks forced states to abandon “neutrality” and align with Washington.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held an emergency meeting, invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter and set “red lines”, activating joint air defense systems and reconnaissance flights. Gulf countries show that Tehran’s attacks have strengthened their cohesion, while any further escalation could turn the Gulf into an active war front.
Moreover, attacks on military installations linked to the West – from a British base in Cyprus to French forces in the UAE – increase the risk of NATO involvement. Tehran has particularly hit the UAE, with over 60% of attacks targeting airports, ports and energy infrastructure, while also damaging the reputation of these states as safe investment and tourism centers.
The planet watches over burning coals
Gulf officials point out that Tehran has fundamentally changed the diplomatic landscape, making future negotiations over its missile and nuclear programs more difficult while uniting its neighbors and Western governments in the face of threats.
Iran continues to play with fire, testing the limits of international patience, while no one can predict where the escalation will stop. The coming weeks are expected to be critical for Middle East stability and international security.
