China set this Thursday (5) the lowest economic growth target in decades, announcing that it intends to achieve an expansion of 4.5% to 5% in 2026, while the world’s second largest economy faces weak domestic demand and an uncertain global outlook.
The moderate projection follows three consecutive years of “around 5%” from 2023 to 2025, which the country achieved despite a slow recovery following strict Covid-19 controls and US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive last year. Still, China’s broader growth trajectory has stabilized, weighed down by a prolonged housing crisis, tepid consumption and deflation.
Since the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak, the government has not shown so much caution in its forecasts. In 2020, with the economy almost paralyzed by the coronavirus, authorities stopped setting a numerical target. The target for 2026 is the lowest since Beijing began publishing these numbers in the early 1990s.
“In recent years, the Chinese economy has shown itself to be remarkably resilient, moving forward even in the face of headwinds,” said Premier Li Qiang, the country’s second-highest official, today during the opening of the annual assembly of China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC).
“Rarely, in many years, have we come across such a serious and complex scenario, where external shocks and challenges are intertwined with internal difficulties and difficult political choices,” he stated, recognizing that the domestic economy continues to face “deep structural problems”.
During the weeklong meeting, nearly 2,900 delegates will approve China’s next, a policy guide intended to guide the government’s priorities in the coming years and cement the country’s status as a global technology powerhouse.
The meeting comes weeks before Trump’s visit to Beijing, where Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to host him for a three-day summit on trade, technology and Taiwan, among other issues.
After launching its economic reforms in the late 1970s, China has experienced nearly three decades of mostly double-digit growth, overtaking Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second-largest economy. But its pace has slowed over the past decade, compounded by tight pandemic controls, as regional rival India has overtaken it as the fastest-growing major emerging economy.
