If , the senator (-RJ) would have a very favorable electoral scenario. In the clash with the president (PT), the first-born of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has twice as many voting intentions in this Christian niche, as announced this Saturday (7).
In stimulated disputes, when the names of presidential candidates are presented in advance, Lula is the favorite of four in ten voters, with 45% among Catholics and a maximum of 23% among believers. Flávio scores up to 34% in total, but reaches half of the evangelical portion, while he has 30% among Catholic supporters in the best possible scenario for him.
The institute presented several possible electoral arrangements, considering pre-candidates running outside the polarization between Lulism and Bolsonarism. For example, there are simulations that take into account the presence of governors Eduardo Leite (PSD-RS) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD-GO).
Datafolha also tested a confrontation without Flávio and with the governor (Republicanos-SP) occupying this place on the right. Tarcísio would have 21% of the votes, with the option of 31% of evangelicals and 19% of Catholics. The weaker performance could be a side effect of his candidacy being considered a remote hypothesis, at least since former president Bolsonaro endorsed his son.
In the various scenarios tested by Datafolha, the governor . (PSD-PR) is the third best positioned name among evangelicals. It goes to 13% when Tarcísio enters the race, and Flávio is left out.
The survey carried out between March 3 and 5, with 2,004 interviewees and registered with the Electoral Court under code BR-03715/2026, reveals a marked religious divide between Lula and Flávio.
In the spontaneous mention of voting for president, when the interviewee responds without seeing a list of candidates, the PT member leads in the universal sample with 25% and presents a particularly strong performance among Catholics, reaching 30%. Among evangelicals, however, its rate drops to 12%.
The senator appears with 12% overall, but has a more robust performance among believers: 18%, compared to 10% among Catholics.
“Current president” and “PT candidate”, as well as Jair Bolsonaro, ineligible and imprisoned, are also mentioned by voters.
Catholics represent 48% of the interviews carried out by the institute, and evangelicals, 28%, an approximate reflection of the country’s religious profile detected by the 2022 Census. The margin of error is plus or minus three points among believers aligned with the Vatican, and four points in the block derived from Protestantism.
The contrast helps to explain the strength of the Bolsonarist camp in the electorate, and Flávio has been striving to strengthen relations with the national leadership of the segment.
Elefortes of the field: CGADB (General Convention of the Assemblies of God of Brazil), Quadrangular Church, Universal of the Kingdom of God and others. He spent the New Year at a mega gospel event led by.
There should also be a meeting with, who has already criticized his ticket for finding him electorally weak. Now that Flávio has established himself as competitive in the dispute against Lula, the tendency is for these edges to be smoothed out. The former president of the evangelical bench (RJ), leader of the PL in the Chamber and ally of Malafaia, has accompanied the senator on the pilgrimage to churches.
Unlike his father, who became closer to evangelicals without ever ceasing to declare himself Catholic, Flávio was raised under Baptist principles — a church attended by his mother, Rogéria Bolsonaro. He says that his real conversion, however, only happened in 2022. Today he is linked to the Community of Nations, owned by Bishop JB Carvalho.
