Iran’s Assembly of Experts said it had reached a consensus on the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US and Israeli attack on February 28, but the name of the new supreme leader has not yet been officially announced. The information was released by Iranian religious authorities and published by Al Jazeera and other international agencies.
Ayatollah Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri, member of the Assembly of Experts, said that the collegiate reached a “decisive and unanimous opinion” on the new leader, although there are still “some obstacles” in relation to the procedure for making the choice official. According to the Iranian Constitution, this body, made up of 88 clerics, is responsible for selecting the supreme leader, a central figure in the country’s political and religious system.
In a video released by the Nournews agency, another member of the assembly, Ayatollah Mohsen Heidari Alekasir, stated that a candidate had already been chosen based on guidance attributed to Khamenei – who ruled Iran for 37 years and was killed on February 28 in a joint attack by the United States and Israel. According to him, the former leader argued that the successor should “be hated by the enemy”, and not praised by him. Alekasir further stated that “even the Great Satan [Estados Unidos] has already mentioned his name”, without directly mentioning who would be chosen.
The statements come just days after US President Donald Trump said that Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the dead leader, was the most likely name to take over the post, but considered him an “unacceptable” option.
Mojtaba is described by the international press as a hard-line cleric, with strong ties to the Revolutionary Guard and influence built behind the scenes as his father’s main advisor, despite not having held formal government positions beyond his role in the supreme leader’s office.
According to the semi-official Mehr agency, cited by both Al Jazeera and international outlets, the announcement of the new leader will be made by the body’s secretary, Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, but it is not yet known whether the decision will be formalized in a face-to-face meeting, taking into account the context of military escalation and security concerns.
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The uncertainty regarding the form of the announcement occurs amid direct threats from Israel to the succession process. In a message published in Persian on platform
The succession at the religious leadership occurs in parallel with the intensification of the war in the region and an increase in pressure on Iran’s strategic infrastructure.
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More attacks
Israeli jets attacked large fuel depots in the Kuhak and Shahran areas of Tehran, as well as the nearby city of Karaj. Local authorities reported explosions in parts of the capital and advised residents to wear masks and stay at home, citing air pollution risks from clouds of debris. The Red Crescent Society has warned of the release of large quantities of harmful particles into the atmosphere following explosions in fuel storage tanks.
Iran, in turn, has increased missile and drone attacks against Gulf countries. An Iranian attack damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain, according to the local government, although water supplies were not interrupted.
The offensive comes after Tehran accused the US of targeting a similar structure on Iranian territory. Gulf countries rely heavily on desalination plants to supply drinking water, which increases the potential impact of successive attacks on this type of facility.
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Energy market
The conflict also puts pressure on the energy market. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have begun to reduce oil production in the face of the near-interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which around a fifth of global energy exports flow.
According to Bloomberg, crude oil futures in the United States ended the week above US$90 per barrel, more than US$20 above the previous week’s level, in the biggest weekly percentage gain in records dating back to the 1980s. Saudi Aramco shares rose close to 5% in Riyadh, reflecting the perception of a higher risk premium in the region.
Trump
Meanwhile, the conduct of the war and succession in Tehran remains under international scrutiny.
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The country says it is considering expanding the scope of attacks inside Iranian territory, and Israel indicates that it will continue to target both military and energy installations and key figures in the Iranian power structure.
The choice and profile of the new supreme leader – especially if it confirms a name associated with the Revolutionary Guard and the most rigid wing of the regime – tends to be seen as an indication of the future direction of Iran’s foreign and security policy, with potential effects on the ongoing conflict and volatility in the oil markets and risky assets linked to the region.
