While the governor has a guaranteed bid for re-election, the Lula government has not yet decided which name it will launch into the race.
The Datafolha survey released this Sunday (8), shows governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) at front in the dispute for the government of São Paulo. He is followed by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), considered for the dispute.
This is the first survey carried out by the institute this year on the state dispute. While the governor is guaranteed a re-election attempt, the Lula government has not yet decided which name it will launch in the dispute, in the hope of retaining the votes won in 2022 and helping President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to guarantee another four years in the Palácio do Planalto.
Tarcísio appears with 44% of voting intentions against 31% for Haddadwho scores best against the governor among the options still on the Lula government’s table for the dispute. In the stimulated and unique response, Kim Kataguiri (Missão) and Paulo Serra (PSDB), with 5%; and Felide D’Avila (Novo), with 3%, appear well behind. Between blank, null or no votes, there are 11% of people.
When the Lula government’s candidate is vice-president and former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), Tarcísio opens up the advantage and scores 46% against 26%. In this case, behind are Paulo Serra (6%), Kataguiri (5%) and D’Avila (3%). Blank, null or no votes total 13%.
In a third option tested, Tarcísio opens up a 30 percentage point advantage against the Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB), originally from Mato Grosso do Sul: 49% to 19%. Then come Paulo Serra (7%), Kataguiri (4%) and D’Avila (3%). Blank, null and none votes reach 15%.
Finally, in a scenario with Haddad and the Minister of Entrepreneurship, Microenterprise and Small Businesses and also former São Paulo governor Márcio França (PSB) running together, Tarcísio appears with 44%, Haddad, with 28%, and França, with 5%.
In spontaneous mentions, that is, when Datafolha did not present the respondent with any candidate previously, Tarcísio appears ahead, with 22% of mentions, while the majority of people (59%) were unable to say a name. Then, the order of responses was: the current governor (3%), Haddad (2%), Tebet (1%), votes for the PT/PT candidate (1%). Others total 4%, and white/null/none, 8%.
Second round and rejection
In a possible second round, Tarcísio beat Haddad by 52% against 37%, with 10% blank or null votesand 1% undecided When Alckmin is the opponent, the governor of São Paulo wins by 50% against 39%. With Tebet in the duel, Tarcísio emerges victorious more easily: 58% against 28%.
The institute also asked São Paulo residents which of the candidates they would not vote for at all. The result was the following:
– Fernando Haddad (38%)
– Geraldo Alckmin (29%)
– Simone Tebet (27%)
– Kim Kataguiri (25%)
– Tarcísio de Freitas (24%)
– Márcio França (20%)
– Paulo Serra (19%)
– Felipe D’Avila (18%)
– I would vote for anyone (3%)
– Rejects everyone (3%)
– They don’t know (3%)
Government assessment
A assessment of the Tarcísio government improved since April 2025, date of the last survey. The rate of those who consider it excellent or good went from 41% to 45% in almost a year.
Among those who consider São Paulo’s management to be regular, the rate fluctuated from 33% to 31% in this period. And the proportion of those who evaluate it as bad or terrible fluctuated from 22% to 20%.
When asked whether they approve or disapprove of Tarcísio’s work as governor, 64% say they approve, while 30% disapprove, and 6% were unable to answer.
The researchers also asked whether São Paulo residents see Tarcísio as an ally of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of an attempted coup d’état: 69% responded yes, they see Tarcísio as an ally. 10% think that the governor is an ally of President Lula. For 3%, neither; for 1%, both; and 17% were unable to answer.
The survey’s margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence interval is 95%. Datafolha interviewed 1,608 people aged 16 or over in 71 municipalities in the State between the 3rd and 5th of March.
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