Center leaders point to errors by the president’s government and the recent institutional crisis involving Banco Master as the main causes of Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) advance in the announcement released this Saturday (7). These figures assess that the technical draw is more the result of the PT member’s demerit than the senator’s merit.
Heard with reservation by Sheetthey claim that Lula started the year badly and believe that the government was swallowed up by .
The leaders recognize that the Master crisis is bad for all sides, but they believe that the government is the one who loses the most in this equation. In the reading of these politicians, the population tends to mix Powers, but this prevents them from being a central target of this crisis.
Another factor in the news that contributed to Lula’s wear and tear, these leaders mention, was the tribute to the president, which portrayed families in tin cans. The representation, despite not having the approval of the PT member, generated repercussions among conservatives, mainly evangelicals.
Datafolha research showed that the samba school’s tribute was considered inappropriate by 71% of voters. Even among those who voted for Lula in 2022, almost half (49%) disapproved of the initiative.
In the reading of these politicians, that of the president’s son, Lulinha, within the scope of the CPI in the INSS, had little negative effect for the president in the face of an already troubled news report. The attempt to moderate speech by , they claim, will contribute to a possible reduction in rejection of the PL pre-candidate, but with an effect to be measured in the medium term.
These leaders, despite the emphasis on recent news, claim that the government’s problem is structural. They assess that Lula was trapped in the Planalto, placing only PT members in charge of the palace ministries. The only exception was made last October, when the president placed psolist Guilherme Boulos in the General Secretariat of the Presidency.
They believe that the result was a lack of new ideas, with limited perception of improving the population’s lives. The center assesses that the economy is not doing badly, but initiatives such as income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000, the government’s main electoral banner, have not yet had the expected effect. The measure came into force in January, with workers no longer receiving payroll deductions.
Another point that leaves these leaders skeptical about Lula’s power to react is the war in the Middle East. They believe that, in the event of a prolonged and regional conflict, the rise in oil prices will increase the price of fuel and affect the government’s assessment.
The prediction of these centrão leaders is that Flávio could numerically surpass Lula in the next polls. The government, as shown by Sheet, when they actually intend to bomb the opponent.
The center believes, in any case, that this election will follow the maxim of a plebiscite regarding the current president. Citing the 41% voting intention of Ratinho Júnior (PSD) in a 2nd round scenario against Lula, without Flávio, these party presidents consider that any name put forward as opposition could attract voters dissatisfied with the current administration.
THE RESEARCH
The new research was the first carried out by the institute since Flávio was released from prison by his father, the former president. Initially received with skepticism, given the centrão’s preference for the governor (Republicanos-SP), the pre-candidacy was established.
Flávio got closer to Lula in the first round simulations and technically tied in the second, scoring 43% compared to his rival’s 46%.
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters in 137 municipalities from Tuesday (3) to Thursday (5). With a margin of error of plus or minus two points, the survey is registered with the Electoral Court under code BR-03715/2026.
