Military operations have overshadowed the other big one, which has been raging on its doorstep, in , for four whole years and is in one of its most critical phases.
Although now absent from the headlines and headlines, the Ukraine war is linked to that in , both operationally and geopolitically, at a time when the law of the strong is eclipsing international legitimacy. Even worse, the two parallel wars involve nuclear dangers and threats.
The Ukrainian counterattack that upsets Russia’s plans
The Ukrainian counteroffensive, which began without fanfare in late January and escalated as the Gulf War began, may derail Russian plans for a spring offensive aimed at fully capturing the entire Donetsk region. The forces of Kiev managed to repel the enemy in two areas of the central front and recapture – as they announced yesterday – about 400 square kilometers of territory in the Dnipropetrovsk region, while they scored smaller successes in the Zaporizhia region.
They are the first territorial gains for the Ukrainians since 2023, although Western sources estimate that the area they recaptured does not exceed 250 square kilometers. However, Russian troops continue to exert pressure in other areas, mainly in the east (Dompropyla, Konstantinifka, Liman) and in the north (Sumi), while continuing attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian military has committed valuable, elite forces from its meager reserves to the operation and claims to have inflicted heavy casualties on the Russians.
Drone attacks in the Black Sea
At the same time, on March 1, i.e. a day after the start of the American-Israeli attack on Iran, the Ukrainians launched drone attacks against the Russian Black Sea fleet, causing damage to five ships, which had moved from the Sevastopol naval station to Novorossiysk, where theoretically they would be in less danger.
The biggest operational problem facing Ukraine is that its stockpiles of anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense missiles are running low, at a time when Washington is prioritizing the needs of its own countermeasures in the Gulf to protect US bases as well as oil facilities of its allies from Iranian attacks.
Parallel wars and geopolitical risk
The longer the war in the Gulf drags on, the greater the Ukrainians’ anxiety about the supply of arms and ammunition. On the other hand, with the attention of the “peacemaker” American President Donald Trump on Iran, the Ukrainians hope that the suffocating pressures of the White House for an “at all costs” settlement with Russia will be reduced.
Kiev sided with the US in the attack on Iran, even though it lacks international legitimacy, just like the Russian invasion, while still betting on the EU’s military and diplomatic support. He offered to share with the Arabs and with Israel the experience he has gained in dealing with the Iranian drones used by Moscow, for the massive strikes against the infrastructure of Ukraine.
The “game of proportions” between the USA, Russia and Iran
The “game of proportions” took on an even more interesting dimension, when information was published in the American press that Russia is helping the Iranians target American bases in the Middle East, something similar to the help the US gives to Ukraine, to target Russian military and energy facilities.
Americans, British, French, Germans, etc. they also give the Ukrainians the means (weapon systems) to attack Russia. As long as the war in the Gulf continues for a long time, it is possible that Russia’s (and China’s) aid to Iran will expand. In this case there is a risk that the parallel wars in Ukraine and the Gulf will intersect and create an explosive mixture for the entire planet.
