As the US-Israeli war against Iran enters its third week, pressure is mounting on the person best placed to end it: Donald Trump.
But the American president’s explanations, which change frequently, about the reasons that led him to war leave allies and adversaries unable to predict when he will be ready to stop. And even if that happens, Iran has shown little willingness to follow the movement. Trump went from saying the war would end soon to asking European and Gulf allies for help. They are reluctant, while countries like Russia benefit from the situation.
The scenario was evident in a recent call with G7 leaders, in which Trump was repeatedly pressed by European counterparts about what his ultimate goal is, according to people familiar with the conversation. He said he could not discuss war aims on that call, but told leaders he had several in mind and wanted the conflict to end soon.
The last 48 hours have only deepened the confusion between allies previously considered firm.
Conversations with several officials, after Trump told Fox News that the war would end when he “felt it in his bones”, paint a picture of perplexity and shock. No one appears willing to heed his call to mobilize scarce resources and help reopen the largely closed Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and a large portion of its liquefied natural gas passes. Meanwhile, parallel channels with Iran are multiplying, as countries from India to Türkiye try to secure their own safe passage for ships in Hormuz.
Even Japan, which rarely wants to appear out of step with the United States, said through a senior official that efforts to escort ships face “high obstacles.” This amounts to a polite “no”, echoing among countries that the US did not consult about the war launched on February 28 and which is now likely to last several weeks.
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The Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that several countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort ships through the corridor, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, which adds that it is uncertain whether operations would begin during or after the fighting.
Tehran’s forces fire missiles and drones daily at targets in the Middle East, despite heavy attacks from the US and Israel and Trump’s declarations of victory. Iranian control over shipping through the strait has pushed oil above $100 a barrel, rattling economies around the world and threatening Trump’s political prospects at home. Even one of the president’s own advisers went public on Friday to ask him to declare victory and end the fighting.
The latest escalation of U.S. military operations could represent the peak of American action, an intense advance designed to degrade Iran’s remaining capabilities, according to European officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their governments’ positions.
While they consider Trump’s claims that the strikes destroyed Iran’s military capabilities to be exaggerated, these European officials see this rhetoric as a possible setup for Washington to declare the operation complete.
“There are strong incentives, on all sides, to quickly end the military phase of the mission,” said Victoria Coates, Trump’s former deputy national security adviser and now with the Heritage Foundation. It is Trump who has the “dominant leverage to set the terms of any negotiations,” he added.
A senior Gulf Arab official warned that ultimately it will only be the sustained rise in oil that will force Trump to stop fighting and declare victory, leaving regional allies to deal with the remaining threat from a wounded and enraged Iran.
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For now, Trump promises to continue the campaign, saying he is not ready for a deal, although Iran would be. Officials in Tehran remain convinced they can hold out longer than the American leader, even though the damage is mounting.
Trump abruptly changed course over the weekend, a possibility seen in these capitals as something that ranges from questionable to fanciful. From his golf course in Florida, Trump posted a stream of contradictory messages on social media, asking for support in a war he has repeatedly said he has already won and asking for help in a strait that his administration insists remains open. On Saturday, he said Iran wanted a deal, which Tehran rejected.
But Trump’s attempt to dispel concerns with declarations of quick military victory and economic recovery is already fraying, with at least 13 Americans dead so far and the president rushing to try to stem the rise in oil prices, which further threatens Republicans’ chances in a midterm election year. To date, government efforts to reduce the impact on the oil market have not led to a lasting drop in prices.
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Over the weekend, the White House reiterated that the campaign was planned to last four to six weeks, but is ahead of schedule. “We expect the global economy to get a big positive shock once this is over,” Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CBS.
Trump’s own political coalition is beginning to show signs of wear and tear. David Sacks, in charge of artificial intelligence in the government, said in a podcast published on Friday that he agrees that “we must try to find a way out”, arguing that the Iranian military has already been degraded. “This is a good time to declare victory and exit, and that is clearly what the markets would like to see,” he said, warning that the conflict could escalate further.
And Vice President JD Vance, an avowed skeptic of outside intervention, neither fully embraced the endeavor nor publicly criticized it.
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Still, Senator Lindsey Graham, Trump’s staunch ally and informal spokesman, praised the president’s decision to bomb parts of Kharg Island, ending a social media post with the motto of the US Marine Corps, a signal for the possibility of sending ground troops soon. The U.S. is sending a Marine Expeditionary Force to the region, officials said Friday.
The US struck military targets on the island but left intact the oil facilities, through which most of Iran’s exports pass.
The International Energy Agency has warned that the war could already represent the biggest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Gasoline prices in the US have already risen sharply, by about 65 cents per gallon since the start of the war. Public support for the war also appears limited, with recent polls showing Americans divided or inclined to oppose the conflict.
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“He expected this to be a very quick war,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and former member of the Obama administration, now a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, in an interview with Bloomberg. “Now this war is out of his control. It’s longer, more confusing and taking a toll.”
Some Gulf officials say they have little visibility into Washington’s plans and privately express frustration that the war was launched without meaningful consultation. They say the conflict has shown how little influence Gulf governments currently have over the decisions driving the war, despite their efforts to approach the Trump administration with promises of investment.
“The Gulf States want normality: peace and calm to refocus on their national transformation plans,” said Bader Al-Saif, assistant professor at Kuwait University and research associate at Chatham House. “This requires a major reset of security arrangements with Western partners and also requires dialogue with Iran.”
The war may prove difficult to end for a simple reason: Washington and Tehran measure victory by very different standards.
Despite US success in striking Iranian military targets, Tehran still has the means to react. Even with much of its conventional power damaged, Iran can impose costs through attacks by allied groups, harassment of shipping and disruption of regional energy flows.
Iran does not need to defeat the US militarily to claim success: surviving the war may be enough.
“Their calculation is that it depends on who has the higher pain threshold,” said Nasr, the Iran expert. “They think the United States and Israel can shoot much faster, but they’re not exactly long-distance runners.”
Iranian officials have also made clear they are not seeking a quick ceasefire. The country’s leaders have framed the conflict as a time to restore deterrence against the US and Israel and ensure that Iran cannot be attacked again.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said last week that the country’s goal is to maintain an “effective defense that makes the enemy regret” its actions. “We will extract reparations,” he said in a written statement.
“It is quite possible that they feel they have crossed a Rubicon in terms of their ability to inflate the world price of oil with relatively simple means,” said Simon Gass, a former UK ambassador to Iran.
Still, countries including Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are exploring channels to reduce tensions and stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while European governments try to keep indirect channels open with Iranian intermediaries, officials said.
So far, efforts remain timid. European officials say Iran focused its early messages on two demands: compensation for war damage and guarantees against future attacks. Both will likely be unacceptable to the White House.
At the same time, the battlefield can still expand. Israel has expanded operations in Lebanon, while Iraqi militias have signaled a new phase of attacks against American and foreign targets, leaving any diplomatic opening fragile.
An end to the fighting could also come without negotiation, if Trump decides he has already achieved his goals, or has endured enough pain.
“The president has destroyed most of Iran’s military and naval power and set back its nuclear program for years,” said Elliott Abrams, who was the Trump administration’s special representative for Iran. “He could stop at any time and declare victory.”
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