The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz has won the regional elections in Rhineland Palatinate, a “land” in southwestern Germany where the Social Democratic Party (SPD) dominated for 35 years. The victory of the German chancellor’s party aggravates the crisis of social democracyhis partner in the Berlin government, which fell ten points compared to the 2021 regionals.
According to projections by public television ZDF at the close of polls, the CDU obtained 30.5% of the votes, four points more than the SPD. Pre-election polls showed a neck-and-neck tie between both parties, with a slight conservative advantage.
The far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won 20%his best result in the west of the country, which also more than doubles his previous results in that “land.” Fifteen days ago, in the Baden-Württemberg regional elections, right-wing radicalism already reached 19%.
After this Sunday’s elections, the only possible constellation in Rhineland-Palatinate is a coalition between conservatives and social democrats. The AfD is ruled out as an ally by the rest of the German parliamentary spectrum. The Greens will be the fourth force in the regional chamber, with 8.5%.
Second stage of the electoral year
These regional elections were presented as a “fratricidal pulse” between Merz’s conservatives and their social democratic partners. The result is a new blow for the SPD, the party whose presidency is shared by Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas. Fifteen days ago, in the Baden-Württemberg regional elections, the Social Democrats collapsed to 5.5% of the votes, just half a point above the minimum bar to obtain seats.
Merz’s CDU, on the other hand, is washing away the wounds suffered in the elections in that southern “land”. There the Greens prevailed, revalidating, although by a minimal margin, the leadership they have held for 15 years in Baden-Württemberg.
Merz, who in May will celebrate his first year as chancellor, had opened the electoral year by calling his ranks to fight for victory in the five regionals called for this 2026. Rhineland Palatinate was the second stage. There are still ahead, already in September, two regional elections in the east, where the AfD is predicted to take first place with up to 40% of the votes, and finally the elections in the city-state of Berlin, now governed by a coalition between the CDU and the SPD.
Precariousness as a lever
Rhineland Palatinate, with four million inhabitants, is a neighboring land to Baden-Württemberg. Unlike this, it is not identified with economic prosperity, but with job destruction. The dominant theme of the campaign has been violence in their schools and the poverty grants existing in the region.
The case of a school that accumulated a hundred complaints of violence against its teachers was the workhorse of the AfD. Outgoing Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer, who has governed allied with the Greens and Liberals, has been confronted with the question of why the SPD is failing to tackle the problem. His conservative rival, Gordon Schnieder, benefited from the citizen’s desire for a change in power.
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