Israel should abandon the fantasy of regime change in Tehran and focus on its nuclear and missile programs, noted Israeli analyst Michael Milstein told Vima, pointing to both Tel Aviv and Washington.
THE Michael Milstein is head of Palestinian studies at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, and has served as head of Palestinian Affairs at military counterintelligence (AMAN) and is a colonel in the army.
What is Netanyahu’s plan? Does Israel have an exit strategy in Iran and then Lebanon?
: the prevailing feeling is that there is no strategy. From the first day until today there are many outstanding military achievements and there is no doubt that the Islamic regime of Tehran suffered a huge damage. But, really, we don’t understand what the goal is. Is it the collapse of the regime? Because if that was the goal, it looks like we failed. We want to ensure that existential threats are eliminated and that means Israel must focus on and arsenal of ballistic missiles. But we don’t know the outcome for sure. No one knows what the clear objective of Israel and the US is.
First of all, Netanyahu, with the exception of a press conference with the media a week ago, does not talk to the people. (p.s. Prime Minister Netanyahu gave another interview last Thursday night, to foreign correspondents). There are many slogans, many announcements but no direct communication with the people. There is no official, clear description of the aims of the war. Most people would like this war to be about the specific threats, that is, seriously damaging both Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. If the goal is the collapse of the regime, then we have many reservations about whether this is possible. We see no signs of a collapse, a revolution, an undermining of the regime, and we don’t even know if that would be possible.
Trump seems to be more cautious. He talks about the Straits of Hormuz, he talks about the nuclear program, but he no longer talks about regime change. Three weeks after the start of the war, more and more people here in Israel are demanding clear answers about the goals of the war. I hope Israel will stop the excesses, give up the fantasy of regime change and focus on military objectives. More and more people understand that this war will end without the regime falling. It may be more weakened, more limited, but it will survive. And that means we have to work out a strategy for the next day, how to deal with this regime and its threats. Unfortunately, at the moment it seems that all kinds of illusions and slogans prevail instead of realistic approaches when it comes to Iran.
Do you think Netanyahu succeeded in pushing Trump to war?
we saw at least a strange dimension of it after the attack on the South Pars gas field. Initially there were reports here in Israel that it was done in coordination with the Americans, but then Trump said that Israel acted independently, without coordination with him. I am very wary of the relations between these two strange leaders because there are many things we do not know. At the moment it seems that the relations between the two leaders are very strong. For example, if you look at the discussion in the Arab world about the relationship between the US and Israel they consider it to be very high level. They say relations between these two countries and their leaders are much stronger than Trump’s relations with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries.
We don’t know everything, but I think Netanyahu has a lot of influence on Trump. I appreciate that he pushed Trump to war. But the question is what if Trump begins to sense that this war is far more complex, more challenging, and longer than he originally anticipated, and if he wants to end it even without an outright victory. What will happen then? Will Israel continue the war? Will Trump tell him “you have to stop the war” and Israel will obey?
There are many questions about Gaza as well…
Many perceive that perhaps Israel will be asked to pay a price in Gaza for this alliance with the US against Iran, namely to be more flexible in implementing whatever Trump wants in Gaza. There is a very wide gap between what Trump wants and what Israel wants in Gaza. It won’t surprise me if within a month we see things Netanyahu doesn’t want, such as an international force, a government of technocrats. We know Netanyahu wants to continue the war but Trump will tell him “I helped you, together we fought Iran. But now you have to respond to what I say about Gaza.” Their relationship is very close, but I would not be surprised if a serious difference of opinion is revealed, not only in Iran but also on other fronts such as Gaza.
