With the governor’s resignation. (PR) to run for President this year, his colleague Rolando Caiado (GO) becomes the favorite name to take over the race for .
Both state leaders were at the forefront of Kassab’s project to mount a single candidacy, which also included the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, . Of the three, Ratinho Jr. was always the least excited about the venture.
On the other hand, his better performance than his supporters in the second round polls put him ahead of Kassab’s predilection, according to these politicians’ interlocutors.
At the Datafolha node, at the beginning of this month, the person from Paraná scored 41% in a hypothetical dispute with the president (PT), who had 46%, almost a technical tie. His colleagues were left behind: Lula would beat Caiado today by 46% to 36%, and Leite by 46% to 34%.
In the first round scenarios, Ratinho Jr. was doing better, with 7% compared to 4% for Caiado and 3% for Leite in their respective scenarios in which they occupied the PSD seat. Well ahead were Lula and the senator (PL-RJ).
If confirmed, Caiado’s choice significantly changes that of Kassab’s party. Ratinho Jr. had potential penetration, based on research, in the centrist electorate that today is squeezed between those who prefer Lula and Flávio.
Unlike Ratinho Jr., Caiado, a name more to the right and with a strong connection to agribusiness in the Central-West, is seen as a pre-candidate who moves in the Bolsonaro clan’s frequency range.
He would try to fish for more votes in this lake, seeking to take advantage of Flávio’s high rejection, inherited from his father, the former president and prisoner Jair. It is no coincidence that the senator is already considering a third way to the right.
The problem for Caiado, in a postulation, will be to differentiate himself without attacking Bolsonaro, of whom he was an early supporter in the second round of 2018. Caiado and Bolsonaro tactically distanced themselves, but the Goiano man was a constant figure at events in the failed campaign for amnesty for the former president.
In any case, the governor of Goiás has the potential to help Lula in this first round, if he weakens Flávio’s candidacy. In an optimistic scenario for Planalto and today very unlikely, Caiado and Flávio could share enough votes to make Lula dream of a victory in the first round.
An imponderable factor is Romeu Zema (Novo), who left the government of Minas Gerais aiming to run for president. There are rumors that he, who has around 5% of voting intentions, would be his vice-president.
However, Zema handed over the Minas Gerais government to a man from Kassab, Mateus Simões (PSD), who is expected to run for re-election in October, which opens the door for an alliance around Caiado’s eventual candidacy.
Kassabcontra Lula, whose government houses three PSD ministers. Caiado’s historically more anti-PT stance will certainly clash with this, if the plan goes ahead.
For Leite, Kassab thought he was the one who presented a more structured pre-campaign speech, it now remains to be seen whether the path will be the Senate or a possible vice-president vacancy, if the Goiano’s favoritism is confirmed.
If he runs, Caiado will compete in debates with Lula in 1989, when he came in tenth place with less than 1% of the votes in the election that the PT member lost in the second round to Fernando Collor (PRN), whom the Goiano supported.
Ratinho’s decision took his surroundings in Paraná and the PSD leadership by surprise, which expected to announce it this week. In recent days he had signaled to acquaintances that his performance in the polls, in which he expected to have double-digit results, and family pressure were weighing on him.
He saw himself supported by the PSD, but felt the inconstancy of one electoral leader in particular: his father, the TV presenter Ratinho. On Sunday (22), at a meeting with the family, in particular the two eldest daughters, the hammer was hit. Ratinho Jr. warned Kassab this Monday (23) and even ruled out trying the Senate, the most cited plan B. Now, he must return to private life after the government.
