The snow disappeared and gave way to a new Russian offensive. But Moscow is coming up with another strategy, which exchanges “plastic for meat” and the Ukrainians have done the math: the life of a Russian soldier costs 810 euros in material
Spring came to Ukraine and brought with it the conditions for a new Russian offensive along the front. Hundreds of vehicles and tanks have come out of hiding and begun a renewed effort to achieve the goals set by Vladimir Putin, but which Kiev has been able to deny. In response, Ukraine has relied on surgical precision: instead of just waiting for impact, Kiev’s forces are destroying Russian missile systems and paralyzing vital logistical infrastructure, to try to “dry out” the Russian war machine before it can gain territory.
“There is an impasse that is not favorable to Russia. The Ukrainians’ idea is to create strain on the hydrocarbon production capacity and innovate in the field of drones and Artificial Intelligence. This development has been almost pendular, but I do not foresee that Russia will be able to conquer Donbass”, says Lieutenant General Rafael Martins.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW in its original acronym), a think tank North American, Russian forces have launched strong attacks in the region adjacent to Kursk, but are unable to make progress. However, there are signs that an offensive may be being prepared in this territory. Images shared online by some elite Russian units, such as the 106th paratroopers and the Rubicon drone group, show that Russian forces are conducting a systematic campaign against Ukrainian defenses in the region. This type of action usually precedes an attempt to advance with troops on the ground.
The main Russian war effort continues to take place in the eastern region, with the aim of pushing Ukrainian forces away from their border to create a defensive perimeter that protects the Belgorod region and, at the same time, places the city of Kharkiv within reach of Russian artillery.
The Russian army launched several attacks towards the city of Vovchansk and other regions. According to the Ukrainian armed forces, the tactics are the same: infiltration attacks. Whenever the Russian military encounters resistance, it bypasses it and seeks to progress by avoiding direct attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions. The tactic had an effect last year, due to the combination of the vastness of the front and Ukraine’s lack of military personnel. However, the spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the region confirms that these attempts had little success and resulted in heavy casualties, something that is confirmed by several videos shared on social media.
“We are likely to see a series of close combats, rather than just Russian forces trying to advance against an entrenched Ukrainian defense,” says Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
In addition to these attacks, Russian forces appear to be trying to pressure the Ukrainian city from the east, trying to cross the Oskil River, with Russian forces claiming the conquest of some locations south of Kupyansk. Remember that the Russian Ministry of Defense even announced the conquest of Kupiansk, but a Ukrainian counterattack on the city turned out to be a catastrophe for Russian forces, surrounding several hundred Russian soldiers, according to Russian military bloggers who reported the situation.
In this region, at the gates of the Luhansk oblast, the Ukrainian strategy appears to involve selling any advance to Russian forces at a high price, with entrenched positions in the forest and the lethal use of a large concentration of FPV drones. But the Ukrainian command has also focused part of its effort on intensifying medium-range attacks in the region, hitting support infrastructure, weapons depots and troop concentrations. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, this is what happened on the night of March 23 to 24, when long-range drones hit “a concentration of Russian soldiers” near Khoroshe, 75 kilometers from the front line.
“Russia continues to have difficulties in recruitment and continues to suffer a number of casualties in excess of a thousand per day. The time that passes is not favorable either to Russia’s image or effectiveness”, highlights Lieutenant General Rafael Martins.
“We must be exchanging plastic and metal for dead Russians”
Despite recruitment difficulties, Russia seems committed to launching the siege of the Ukrainian “belt of fortresses” in Donbass: the cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which form an important defensive line and are seen as the key to the conquest of the Donetsk region. Russian forces have already managed to reach the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, the southernmost city in this group, however, Ukrainian forces have managed to recover some positions since Elon Musk cut off access to Russian Starlink systems.
The Russian leadership does not, however, seem willing to accept the end of battlefield communications. Moscow has begun launching the first satellites of the Rassvet project, an attempt to create a system analogous to Starlink, which guarantees secure broadband communications. Although the ISW points to significant delays in production and still deficient manufacturing logistics, the Kremlin’s objective may allow the country to restore the command and control capabilities that were severely amputated with the absence of American satellites.
“The Russians are also competent in innovation. Elon Musk ‘knocked them out’ [com o corte do Starlink] and this significantly harmed Russian capabilities, but both parties will continue to fight for this advantage”, highlights Rafael Martins.
Videos geolocated by ISW analysts show that despite small Ukrainian advances, the Russian air force continues to operate with relative impunity, conducting an effective bombing campaign. In the images analyzed, Russian forces launched several FAB-1500 glide bombs against Ukrainian positions in Kostyantynivka.
Further south, at Pokrovsk, Russian attempts to advance were also unsuccessful. The commander of a Ukrainian battalion revealed that the adversaries are accumulating a large number of soldiers, motorcycles and transport vehicles and attempted an attack on a ten kilometer strip, on the front line, but the attack was unsuccessful. “They are building up in several places and want to push us back,” warns a Ukrainian commander to The New York Times.
These Russian failures take on a different scale with data from Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, the architect of Ukraine’s drone strategy. Brovdi reveals that, since December, Russian losses from drones have exceeded the Kremlin’s recruitment rate, with an accumulated deficit of 8,776 soldiers compared to those replaced. This brutal efficiency, where each Russian casualty costs just $878 in material, according to the commander, explains why, even on its most successful axis towards Kostyantynivka, the Russian force only managed to conquer 23% of the territory planned for the winter campaign. “We must be exchanging plastic and metal for dead Russians,” says the Ukrainian commander. “It’s the best exchange rate.”
The Russians respond by intensifying attacks with long-range drones, the result of a high production capacity. On March 24, Russia launched the largest series of attacks since the conflict began, with almost a thousand long-range drones. The Russian objective is to take advantage of the depletion of American stocks, which are being intensively used in the Middle East, and put pressure on the very limited Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses. Unlike previous attacks, which were short and intense, Russia is now extending the duration of the bombings to identify and penetrate vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defense network.
Ukraine responds with attacks to strangle Russian sources of income. A drone attack on Primorsk oil terminal, Russia’s largest in the Baltic, damaged several storage tanks, directly affecting Russia’s ability to finance the war despite the significant increase in fuel prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Images shared on social media and obtained by private satellite companies show that the fire at the facilities has been burning for several days and the extent of the damage is significant.
But this Ukrainian strangulation strategy continues to have a strong focus in the occupied Crimea region, where Kiev forces continue to intercept and destroy several columns of missile launch systems, including Zirkon hypersonic missiles and Iskander-M ballistic missiles. By managing to degrade these capabilities before they are even used, Kiev exposes the vulnerabilities of the Russian air defense network, which appears to be increasingly unable to defend its most expensive systems against the increasing precision of Ukrainian long-range strikes.
However, the outcome of the spring offensive will depend on factors beyond the front line. The Kremlin’s financial health, fueled by hydrocarbons, remains its “recharged battery”. If Russia manages to maintain commercialization at high prices, it will have room to prolong the conflict. But the realization of a Middle East peace plan could have a more far-reaching impact on the Russian war effort. “If Iran, a great ally, moves away from Russia, that would be a serious blow”, warns the major general.
