The island of Kharg, located about five miles off the Iranian coast, is now in the US spotlight. The eventual invasion operation will have a very high cost for the United States, as military experts interviewed by CNN Portugal warn
The possibility of a US operation to seize the island of Kharg, Iran’s main oil export center, in recent days. This is a critical point for the Iranians, with 90% of the country’s crude oil passing through this infrastructure, making it a true economic lifeline for Tehran.
By sea, land or air, there are several alternatives that the Trump administration has to reach Kharg and, thus, further pressure Tehran to give in and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy routes in the world.
From a military point of view, an operation of this nature will hardly depend on a single vector, according to experts interviewed by CNN Portugal. The combination of air, naval and even subsurface assets appears as the most plausible scenario.
“Subsurface vectors combined with aerial vectors are a possibility (…) to create an entry and allow troops to reinforce that same entry”, explains Lieutenant General Rafael Martins. Even so, he warns, it is “an extremely demanding and very dangerous operation”.
The airway, despite being fast, has critical limitations. “Dropping paratroopers on the island of Kharg is very risky, because the Iranians have detection capabilities and could easily detect the presence of US aircraft”, he points out, warning of the high degree of exposure of troops before they even reach the ground, at a time when the US has around a thousand paratroopers on their way to the Middle East.
Major General Jorge Saramago also considers that this could be the least favorable on the table. “The launch with parachutists on this island is very unlikely to happen, even if it is a hypothesis. (…) The casualties would be very high.” In your opinion, the most viable option will be another. “I think the best alternative will be by sea.”
But if this possibility can apparently be more beneficial for the US, the amphibious landing is far from simple. Before any attempt at occupation, it would be necessary to neutralize Iranian defenses. “The Americans will first have to attack all existing defenses on the island with precision bombing”, says the major general, describing an intense initial phase of air and missile attacks to “melt” the Iranian defensive capacity.
Only after that, he continues, would it be possible to move towards creating a “bridgehead”, that is, an initial position in enemy territory that allows reinforcements to arrive. “The objective is not just to conquer this space, but to create conditions so that heavier forces can disembark with greater peace of mind.”
Still, even this scenario is far from guaranteeing quick success, something Donald Trump has wanted since the beginning of the conflict. “As long as the forces do not disembark, they will be hit by the Iranians with fire”, predicts Jorge Saramago, highlighting the role of obstacles and defenses on the ground.
“Only later, when the forces finally reach the beach, do they organize and carry out ground attack maneuvers, with the aim of assaulting the land positions occupied by the Iranians and then killing them and occupying the combat positions”, details the major general.
Satellite image shows Kharg island in Iran, before the US attacks. CNN
Operation could cause “a lot of casualties”
If there is a point of consensus among the experts interviewed by CNN Portugal, it is the high risk of casualties, if the US actually wants to advance towards Kharg. “This type of operation will certainly cause fatalities on both sides”, warns Rafael Martins.
Even with advanced technology and the use of drones or unmanned systems to reduce risks, reality on the ground tends to be unpredictable. “There is a considerable degree of uncertainty here”, emphasizes the lieutenant general.
An idea also reinforced by Jorge Saramago. “If [os EUA] launch an operation of this nature, the casualties will be very high (…). Still, Donald Trump may understand that this is a cost to pay to impose his will in the region.”
Furthermore, the nature of the island itself exacerbates the difficulties. Highly flammable energy infrastructures increase the risk of massive destruction. “We are talking about an island that is full of energy infrastructures that catch fire”, warns the major general, pointing to consequences that could go far beyond the military field.
“After the initial takeover, US forces will have to consolidate positions on the ground, protecting themselves and entrenching themselves, especially because an immediate response from Iran is expected on the island itself. This is, therefore, a particularly dangerous maneuver”, he states, stressing that “it is natural for Iran to then fire on the island”, characterized by being “highly flammable”.
But not everything is bad on this path. For Rafael Martins there is still room for less conventional and potentially decisive approaches at the operational level, remembering that the Americans have “another possibility, which may even surprise”, regarding the type of means and technology they could use “to reduce casualties on the ground”.
In this context, he points to the use of systems capable of forcing the adversary to activate and expose its air defenses, “similar to what has already been done by both Israel and Iran”. The logic, however, would be different: “Not just wearing down the enemy, but creating conditions for a broader strategic advantage.”
Why Kharg Island?
Location of Kharg Island. Mapbox, CNN
Located about eight kilometers off the Iranian coast, the island of Kharg is 20 square kilometers and is considered .
Its strategic importance also results from its physical characteristics: the long breakwaters extend over waters deep enough to receive supertankers, transforming it into a key point for the export of crude oil.
But this role is not recent. A declassified CIA document, dated 1984 and , already highlighted that the island’s infrastructure was “the most vital in the Iranian oil system”, adding that its continued operation is essential for the country’s economic stability.
The island’s storage capacity is around 30 million barrels and, according to analytics firm Kpler, around 18 million barrels are currently stored there, according to data cited by Reuters.
Kharg’s centrality in the Iranian energy system also explains its strategic value in a conflict scenario. Earlier this month, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid argued that destroying the terminal “would paralyze Iran’s economy and overthrow the regime,” adding that Israel “must destroy all of Iran’s oil fields and energy industry on Kharg Island.”
Iran ready to protect Kharg
All of these factors make the island absolutely vital to Iran’s future. Therefore, the Iranian response is not only predictable, but with a level of preparedness that could turn any attempt to take the island into a high-risk operation.
In recent weeks, and as reported by CNN International, Tehran has implemented a defensive device in Kharg, with the reinforcement of troops, the installation of air defense systems and the placement of traps on the ground. Also coastal areas, particularly vulnerable to a possible amphibious landing, are now densely mined.
Lieutenant General Rafael Martins describes a scenario of meticulous preparation. “The Iranians are already strengthening the island with various types of defenses”, he notes, explaining that “they are placing troops, anti-personnel mines and anti-tank mines” throughout the island, in a clear attempt to “make any entry attempt as difficult as possible”.
The assessment is corroborated by information collected by the US military services, which indicates that Iran has been mounting a defense in depth. In addition to the mines and troops on the ground, additional air defense systems were deployed, including portable surface-to-air missiles (MANPADS), capable of hitting aircraft at low altitude, precisely those that would be used in a rapid insertion operation.
