Strait of Bab-El-Mandeb, 16th century illustration (c. 1541) by Portuguese nobleman, Dom João de Castro, titled “Távoa das Portas do Estreito”
Iran could turn to Yemen’s Huthi rebels to block a vital maritime corridor in the Red Sea, strangle global trade and plunge energy markets into uncharted territory, raising the specter that the price of oil could reach $150.
The world could be on the verge of another oil shockat a time when the consequences of US and Israeli attacks on Iran continue to shake global energy markets.
According to , Tehran is now showing signs that it could open a second maritime blockade front, threatening to end the Bab el-Mandeb straita vital corridor for international trade routes, located in the Red Seain the extreme southwest of Yemen.
An Iranian military official told the country’s semi-official news agency that if the US and Israel continued to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, the regime would “escalate insecurity in other straitsincluding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.”
The warning is a significant escalation of pressure campaign Tehran’s strategic has already effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and triggered what analysts describe as the worst market disruption ever global energy sources.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with only 32 kilometers wide at its widest point, it functions as entrance door between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
Nearly 10% of the world’s oil and natural gas pass through there daily, along with loads of electronic products, food, clothing and other goods that connect markets in Africa, Europe and Asia. It is the 4th largest point of bottleneck of maritime transport not planet.
Iran’s influence over this strait, located more than 2,000 km from Iranian territory, based mainly on Huthi rebelsa terrorist group based in Yemen and financed by Tehranwhich is commonly used by the Islamic republic in its famous proxy wars.
ZAP // MapChart
The Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea is more than 200 km from Iran
The Huthi disrupted international maritime transport through Bab el-Mandeb between 2023 and 2025, using drones and missilesbefore accepting a ceasefire. However, its leader warned earlier this month that “our hands are on the trigger when it comes to military escalation“.
Danny Citrinowicza former senior researcher with the Israel Defense Forces, said he has little doubt that The Houthis will eventually intervene — first blocking the strait, then trying to disrupt oil tanker traffic in the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
In recent weeks, the strait has served as an alternative route for Middle East oil after the closure of Hormuz, becoming a pressure point even more critical.
Noam Raydansenior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, warned that The Huthi threat never truly disappeared. “They took a break last year, but the threat remains,” he said.
The two largest shipping companies in the world, MSC and Maersk, have already are diverting ships from the region.
If the Houthis re-enter the conflict, even in a limited way, the consequences could be serious. Gregory BrewIran analyst at Eurasia Group, warned that all it takes is a few missiles or drones to make it impossible the unloading of oil tankers.
This disturbance could escalate the current disturbance of 10 million of barrels per day to between 15 and 17 million. The price of crude oil, which already fluctuates between 90 and 100 dollars per barrel, would quickly rise to 150 dollarshe stated.
This Friday, the price of a barrel of Brent oil for delivery in May ended on the London futures market up 4.22% to $112.57the highest value since July 2022.
Meanwhile, US military reinforcement in the region continues. Thousands of marines are embarking, with the first wave expected to arrive within days — close to the deadline for a possible American attack to Iran’s energy infrastructure.
At the same time, White House officials court Iranian leaders that might be open to negotiations — a diplomatic effort complicated by the fact that the latest talks took place at a time when the U.S. and Israel have already planned the attacks on Tehran and the assassination of the leader Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
