He set the deadline for his termination or even worse on the evening of April 6, if he did not yield to his demands and lift their ban by then.
The ten-day ultimatum is supposed to give Iran a chance to avoid the total destruction of its energy infrastructure and Washington a way out of yet another bloody war in . A lot can happen in this ten-day period. In fact quite a bit has already happened in the first two days of the countdown.
The bombings are increasing
The bombing intensified while Israel’s air force hit two units of Iran’s nuclear program (in Arak and Yazd) as well as two large steel factories. The Iranians responded with a new wave of missile attacks against Israel and the Gulf states.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has called for nuclear facilities not to be targeted while expressing particular concern over shelling near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, which remains in operation.
On the brink of being out of control
From blow to blow, from retaliation to retaliation, the crisis could in a matter of hours get out of control if Iran bombed corresponding units, such as the nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates, which has four reactors and is located on the opposite coast of the Gulf, between Abu Dhabi and Qatar.
Netanyahu is unmoved
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the continuation of the war until the complete exhaustion of Iran appears to be the only way, unless the American president decides otherwise.
Would Netanyahu be tempted to provoke even greater Iranian retaliation in the Gulf in order to block a deal between Washington and Tehran?
Netanyahu’s goal
“Netanyahu’s strategy is to prolong the war as long as possible,” Alon Ben David, one of the best-known Israeli journalists, told Vima.
“Netanyahu knows that regime change in Iran is not possible. At the military level, he wants to “peel” as much of the regime’s capabilities as possible. On a political level, he believes that war benefits him. But it is not Netanyahu who makes the final decisions,” said the veteran war correspondent, anchor and defense reporting specialist for Israel’s Channel 13.
Second thoughts in Israel
However, in recent days, cracks have begun to appear on the home front and public concerns have been expressed by a section of the military and political establishment about Israel’s own resilience.
The first account
Despite the gloating announcements by American and Israeli officials that most of Iran’s arsenal had been destroyed in the first days of the war, yesterday’s revealing report by the Reuters agency carried estimates from inside the Pentagon that after four weeks of war and thousands of airstrikes only a third of the missiles and drones had been destroyed.
Meanwhile, military analysts estimate that air defense missiles are running out in both Israel and the Gulf states.
Trump’s double message
As Trump says Iran has no choice but to back down, the Pentagon is reportedly ready to send 10,000 more troops to the Gulf, on top of the 5,000 Marines already there or headed to the region with two amphibious assault flotillas.
Will Trump land?
Would the US venture into a hasty amphibious operation with dubious results while “productive talks” are underway according to Trump? Probably not, unless there is a major “opportunity” or an Iranian attack that would cause heavy American casualties and drive the American president out of his mind to order a general attack.
The temporary ceasefire scenario
On the other hand, it is possible to find a solution for a temporary ceasefire within this ten days. Trump handed the reins of the negotiation to Vice President Jay D. Vance, who reportedly expressed misgivings about going to war with Iran from the start.
US-Iran negotiations through third countries
Despite the denials from the Tehran regime, it seems that a dialogue is underway through third parties, which may lay the groundwork for direct negotiation.
In the stock markets, indices go up and down, billions of dollars change hands depending on military strikes, information from diplomatic sources, and of course Trump’s statements. The phenomenon will intensify as we approach the expiration of the ultimatum.
The US and Iran threats
If no solution is found by 8pm on April 6th (2am on April 7th Greek time), the Americans will theoretically be ready to launch sweeping strikes on Iran to destroy all energy infrastructure and set the country back decades.
The Iranians say they will take US allies with them. Unless Trump decides to grant another extension…
