This week, Giorgia Meloni’s long streak of political invincibility came to an end in Italy — and the prime minister’s friendship with Washington is partly responsible for the defeat, says in an analysis the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). After more than three years of relative stability for Meloni, Italians said no to his judicial reform proposal in a constitutional referendum.
Although the vote was on a technical issue of separating judicial careers, it quickly became a referendum on the government, highlights the think tank. With a high turnout of 59% and a resounding result of 54% voting “no”, Meloni will certainly be worried, due to the scratch on the facade of popularity.
One explanation behind the defeat is a growing disconnect between its sovereignist stance, which led it to cozy up to President Donald Trump, and the economic damage caused by its American ally, the ECFR says.
The study center recalls that data from major research institutes indicate that public opinion is quite contrary to Trump’s policies, and it is easy to highlight the difference between the narrative of a government that guarantees the “national interest” and the reality of a government that fails to protect Italy from external shocks induced by its main ally.
Also read:
“This ‘Trump trap’ gave the referendum an added dimension: a judgment on a leadership that seems all too reluctant to defend Rome from the punitive costs of Washington’s strategic choices — especially a war of choice with Iran.”
Continues after advertising
The explanation is that the worsening conflict in the Middle East and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz hit Italy harder than any other European nation due to its heavy energy dependence on the Gulf. Analysts have warned of an imminent recession, with a projected 1% to 1.5% rise in inflation driven solely by the Iranian conflict.
“For the manufacturing heartland of northern Italy — a key electoral base for the ruling coalition — rising energy costs could be seen as a direct failure of the state to protect the national economy. In any case, Italy is embarking on a new and frantic search for fuel, and Meloni was forced by these circumstances to travel again to Algiers on Wednesday,” it says.
These economic pressures are compounded by the way the US administration treats its allies across the Atlantic, the analysis continues. Trump’s relationship with NATO on security issues and the threat of punitive trade tariffs on exports have created a sense of vassal sovereignty in Italy rather than true independence.
“Even within the center-right electorate, there are clear signs of opposition to a foreign policy that treats Italy as a collateral victim of Trump’s ‘America First.’
Conservatives vs moderates
According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, for Europe, the Italian vote is a case study. “Meloni’s defeat hurt his status as the vanguard of the European conservative right. This may provide an opportunity for more moderate or pro-European voices within his government to challenge the narrative that right-wing populism is the only viable path to national strength,” the analysis states.
But if the shift to a more moderate policy does not prevail, Rome will become even more involved in the destiny dictated by Trump, and Meloni’s decline before next year’s elections may be inevitable, the Center warns. “The defeat could also be a warning sign for other Trump friends, especially Viktor Orbán in Hungary, who has a tense election coming up in two weeks.”
Continues after advertising
The think tank concludes by saying that, when the US traps a Member State in conflicts that compromise its security, the “defense of national interests” line may be the first victim. “The lesson for European leaders is clear: true sovereignty requires genuine independence. One cannot claim to prioritize the national interest without defending it from the economic dictates and military costs imposed by an unstable ally.”
“To survive this geopolitical instability, European leaders need to move towards a more pragmatic, interest-driven cohesion that refuses to remain in the shadow of the destabilizing man in the White House.”
