ESPM International Relations professor, Gunther Rudzit, analyzed how the current conflict in the Middle East could politically impact Donald Trump. According to the expert, both China and Russia are interested in continuing the war, as this could generate significant political strain for the American leader on the eve of the November elections.
“Both governments are letting Trump sink into this war, and they will. They give this narrative that they are in favor of peace, but they want this war to continue so that in the elections [de meio de mandato] November”, explained Rudzit during Hora H this Thursday (2).
Asked about the possibility of China and Russia assuming the role of mediators in the conflict between the United States and Iran, Rudzit highlighted that, for mediation to take place, the acceptance of both parties involved is necessary.
“The Iranian government would certainly accept either of these two as a mediator. The problem today is that President Trump accepts China as a mediator,” said Rudzit.
The expert highlighted that this would mean the United States’ dependence on China: “In Trump’s mind, his dependence on Xi Jinping is unthinkable,” he noted. As for Russia, the professor assessed that the situation would be less problematic, as Trump “admires Vladimir Putin’s toughness and authoritarian way of governing.”
Rudzit also commented on the same after the death of several of its leaders. According to him, Iran prepared for this possibility:
“The regional leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, who command the missiles and drones, received war plans and were authorized to use them when there was this attack and the possibility of a decapitation of the leadership.”
The professor explained that Trump must continue bombing the Iranian economy, avoiding oil and desalination facilities so as not to provoke retaliation against: “But this will not change the Iranian stance. They prepared for this and the regime is prepared to go all the way because it is fighting a resistance war”, concluded Rudzit.
