Peace or risk to Israel? War in Gaza increases pressure on State of Palestine

Almost two years after the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, Gaza has been devastated and other Palestinian territories are suffering the consequences of the conflict. In response to the humanitarian crisis, several countries officially recognized the State of Palestine last year.´Brazil has recognized the autonomy of Palestinians since 2010.

The international reaction opened a new chapter in the pressure for the creation of a Palestinian state, in a complex process that involves diplomatic and geopolitical challenges. For José Niemeyer, professor of international relations at the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec-RJ), the recognition of State of Palestine by countries that have not yet taken this decision would represent an important step.

“It is a demand not only from Palestinians, but from many Arab countries that increasingly support this process of formalizing the State of Palestine as a sovereign and independent state recognized by the United Nations and by all the almost 200 countries that make up the international system”, says Niemeyer to Young Pan.

Obstacles that go beyond the UN

The process of recognizing Palestine as a State faces obstacles inside and outside the United Nations. Although more than 150 countries already recognize Palestine, full membership of the UN remains blocked by United States veto in the Security Council.

To date, four of the five permanent members of the Council – Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom – already recognize the Palestinian State. The United States is the only exception.

Before going to the General Assembly, where it would have broad approval, the request must go through the Security Council, with at least nine votes in favor and without a veto from the permanent members.

In addition to considering Israel its main strategic ally in the Middle East,the United States usually blocks recognition initiatives, under the argument that the creation of a Palestinian state must result exclusively from direct negotiations between the parties.

What defines a State

Technically, the existence of a State does not even depend on UN approval or unanimous recognition by other countriesbut compliance with legal criteria consolidated in international law.

The classic reference is Montevideo Conventionfrom 1933. Its main objective was to define, in legal form, what characterizes the existence of a State in international law.

The treaty establishes four fundamental requirements:

1. Defined territory
2. Permanent population
3. Government
4. Ability to maintain relations with other States

In this context, the Palestine already meets all criteria to be considered a State. Even though it does not have fully established borders or full control of its territory, due to the Israeli occupation, the Palestinian territory brings together the central elements provided for in the convention.

A gesture towards peace

Despite having a symbolic nature and still depending on concrete measures to make the two-state solution viable, experts highlight the importance of recognition as a step towards peace in the region.

International Relations professor Danilo Porfírio assesses that formal recognition is important, however, it is not enough, since there is still It is necessary to adopt concrete measures to make a Palestinian state viable.

“It is essential that it effectively constitutes a space of sovereignty and autonomy for the people, capable of responding to the political and economic demands of its population”, highlights Porfírio.

Otherwise, according to the professor, the The Palestinian people will continue to be in the shadow of a rhetoric of Israeli domination and occupation considered illegitimate in the region.

“It is not possible to talk about sovereignty without there being a structured, relatively strong, legitimate and representative State, not only for the Palestinian people, but also before the international community”, points out the professor.

Israel’s security risks

If, on the one hand, the solution between a Palestinian and an Israeli could contribute to alleviating the humanitarian crisis and guaranteeing greater sovereignty for the Palestinian territory, on the other, the measure also raises concerns in Israel about possible risks to the country’s security.

For political scientist and executive president of StandWithUs Brasil, André Lajst, there are a series of issues that need to be resolved so that the two-state solution becomes a reality. “Security issues are very sensitive for Israel. However, some would say that, if these demands were met, this State would not have full sovereignty or full control over its military and defense forces”, assesses Lajst.

The political scientist assesses that the population of Israel does not welcome unilateral recognition by these countries, especially after the war against Hamas. “The Israelis interpret this movement as a reward for Hamas after October 7th. Even though the argument is that recognizing two states goes against the group’s ultimate objective — which defends only one state and the end of Israel,” he states.

Even with recognition, Lajst explains that, in practice, nothing changes, since for the creation of a Palestinian State, an agreement with Israel is necessary.

“Israel controls militarily and has, in a certain way, the power to use force in the region. Recognition is yet another very strong statement that demonstrates the will of the countries. It cannot be carried out without the countries involved reaching an agreement”, points out the political scientist.

Continuity of the humanitarian crisis

While the two-state solution does not advance, NGOs in the Palestinian territory continue to defend its importance, warning that, without it, the

Jonathan Fowler, spokesperson for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), says that while it involves complex and long-term issues, recognition is key.

“The situation in Gaza remains absolutely catastrophic. Humanitarian aid is not enough. It is not reaching the necessary scale”, explains Fowler about the situation in the Palestinian territory.

After completing two years of conflict, the The number of Palestinians killed in the Gaza Strip exceeded 70,000. More than 600 bodies have been recovered from the rubble since the ceasefire came into force. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the amount The total number of victims is still expected to increase drastically.

On the Israeli side, 1,665 were killed, 1,200 of them in the first hours of Hamas’ attack on Israel alone. Another 250 were kidnapped on October 7, 2023.

For the UNRWA spokesperson, the two-state solution is about a long-term journey. “Like the rest of the United Nations system, we support the two-state solution. However, we are still far from this reality. Recognition is an important step”, he concludes.