an independent North American research company, says it sent an analyst to the Musandam peninsula, in Oman, to check whether the Strait of Hormuz is really closed. The report was released on Sunday (April 5, 2026) and is only available to subscribers of the company’s page on the Substack platform.
According to the report, what the analyst claims to have found goes against the news that the important oil route is effectively blocked. He found that vessels are still transiting the strait, with traffic increasing in recent days to around 15 ships per day. Although well below normal levels, the flow indicates that the interruption is partial. The information is from .
The company states that it decided to send the analyst to the location because it understood that “the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is, to say the least, confusing.”
According to Citrini Research, the analyst had the mission to observe shipping activity first hand with the growing tensions between Iran and the United States. “Armed with fluency in 4 languages, including Arabic, a Pelican briefcase full of gear, a pack of Cuban cigars, $15,000 in cash and a pack of Zyn [nicotina]Analyst #3 left to fulfill the itinerary we had planned in our Manhattan offices the week before.”he states.
“Four or 5 oil tankers pass through here every day, completely without a signal on the AIS [Automatic Identification System]. The volume, according to them, is greater than the data indicates, and has been increasing in the last 2 days in the Qeshm channel”says the publication.
AIS is a ship tracking system that transmits a vessel’s location, speed, identity and route. Citrini states that the real volume of maritime traffic is greater than the published data, as many ships turn off their transponders and are left “invisible”.
According to the report, interviews carried out by the analyst with fishermen, smugglers and regional authorities indicate a system in which Iran selectively allows ships to pass. Tankers must obtain approval before transiting waters close to Iranian territory, creating what the company describes as a “functional checkpoint”instead of a lock.
Citrini says it expects a more prolonged disruption, which will result in a permanent risk premium in oil markets. This view supports the preference for longer-dated crude oil contracts, with the company favoring December 2026 West Texas Intermediate contracts over next-month contracts.
“We believe the disruption will be longer and that the new normal will involve a permanent risk premium, but that we will likely see up to 50% of pre-conflict traffic in the next 4 to 6 weeks”he declares.
Read more:
