President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 40.4% of voting intentions and senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), 37%, according to a Meio/Ideia survey published this Wednesday, )8). The result means the two are technically tied. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.
The data relates to the stimulated scenario of the first round, but the technical tie is repeated in the second round: Flávio, with 45.8%, numerically surpasses Lula, who has 45.5%.
The survey also points to a stabilized dispute at this time. In the previous round, in March, Lula had 40.3% and Flávio, 35%, in the first round – both fluctuated within the margin.
In the second platoon, three names are technically tied. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 6.5% and Renan Santos (Missão) and Romeu Zema (Novo) registered 3% of voting intentions each.
Undecided are 8.5% and white and null, 1%. Aldo Rebelo (DC) has 0.6%.
The Meio/Ideia survey interviewed 1,500 people between the 3rd and 7th of April. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-00605/2026-BRASIL.
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Second round
Technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro aside, Lula beats all other candidates in the second round. He has a six percentage point advantage over Caiado (45% to 39%) and Zema (44.7% to 38.7%).
The margin rises to 18.6 points against Renan Santos, whom Lula would beat by 45% to 26.4%.
Voting decision
Meio/Ideia detected that voters have become more indecisive when deciding who to vote for. In January, the first round of the survey, 64.5% said they had decided and 35.5% said they could still change their vote.
Now, those who are determined have fallen to 48.6%, while those who declare that they can still change have risen to 51.4%.
Government assessment
The research also points out that the government’s assessment stabilized, that is, it varied only within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
When asked about their opinion of the government, 10.7% responded “excellent” (it was 12% last month); 21.5% chose “good” (was 22.6%); “regular” was the choice of 19% (18.3%); “bad” registered 15% (16.3%) and “terrible”, 31.4% (29%).
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The survey also asked what is the biggest threat to Brazilian democracy: the most cited, with 42.5%, was the concentration of power in the Judiciary, followed by corruption in the political class, with 16.5%.
The largest portion of those interviewed, 41%, declared themselves against any type of amnesty, while 32% are in favor of the measure, including for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the military. Another 21% are in favor of amnesty only for the protesters and not the leaders of January 8th. They did not know how to answer, totaling 6%.
