The United States and Iran sit down at the table this Saturday (11) in Islamabad for the first face-to-face negotiations since the start of the war, in a meeting that begins under increasing pressure: the two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday (7) is already showing cracks, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Israel’s attacks in Lebanon continued this Friday (10), with Hezbollah responding with rockets to the north of Israel.
The American delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, accompanied by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump. Iran has not officially confirmed its team, but local vehicles indicate that the president of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, will be heading the negotiations. Pakistan, the ceasefire mediator, will host the two delegations in Islamabad.
Trump said to NBC to be “very optimistic” about a peace agreement, saying that Iranian leaders have shown openness to negotiations in private conversations. The USA arrives at the meeting with its own 15-point proposal. Iran presented a ten-point plan that includes conditions already rejected by Washington in the past, including the continuation of uranium enrichment, the withdrawal of American troops from the region, the lifting of all sanctions and the payment of compensation for war damages.
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The main obstacle before talks even begin remains Lebanon. This Friday morning, Hezbollah attacked Israeli soldiers in Wata Al-Khiam with a volley of rockets and fired on the Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, declaring it was acting “in response to ceasefire violations by the Israeli regime.” By Thursday, the group had fired around 30 rockets into northern Israel. Israel continued ground operations in southern Lebanon throughout the night.
Wednesday’s attacks left more than 300 dead and 1,150 injured in Lebanon, according to the country’s health authorities, in the deadliest day since the start of the conflict. Israel destroyed the last bridge over the Litani River, isolating the south of the country, and an Israeli military spokesman declared that the area south of the river is “disconnected from Lebanon.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will begin direct negotiations with the Lebanese government on the disarmament of Hezbollah, at Trump’s request, but made clear that attacks would continue during the talks. Lebanon responded that there will be no negotiations “under fire”.
The White House and Netanyahu maintain that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement. Iran, Pakistan and Hezbollah argue otherwise. Vice President Vance said there was a “legitimate misunderstanding” about the scope of the truce.
The energy situation worsens the climate. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial traffic, with few vessels having completed the crossing since the truce was announced. The CEO of the Abu Dhabi state oil company stated that the strait is “not open” and that the passage is subject to “conditions and political pressure” from Iran. Saudi Arabia confirmed attacks on its east-west oil pipeline, with a loss of around 700,000 barrels per day, its main alternative route to the blocked strait. Trump warned Iran against charging tolls at the crossing and asked NATO for urgent concrete measures to help ensure the security of the strait.
A senior aide to Iranian Supreme Leader Kamal Kharazi died on Thursday from injuries suffered in an American-Israeli attack that also killed his wife. In an interview with CNN in March, Kharazi had said he saw no room for diplomacy and predicted that the war would only end due to the economic pressure it would cause.
(with BBC, The Guardian and Reuters)
