The monthly inflation rate went from 0.70% in February to 0.88% in March, surprising the projections of economic agents obtained by Poder360who expected a result below 0.80%. The highest percentage is related to the beginning of .
The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released the results of the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) this Friday (April 10, 2026). The result was the highest for the month of March since 2022.
Fuel and food the IPCA. Prices rose after the rise in oil prices on the international market, with the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz.
Leonardo Costa, economist at , said that the March data reinforces that financial agents have been surprised by inflation in the short term. He stated that part of this movement reflects effects of the external scenario, most evident in fuels.
He stated, however, that food prices have been pressured by the increase in freight, a secondary effect of the rise in diesel.
“What draws attention is the resilience of the service centers, which continue to operate at a high level in the 1st quarter. Given this, the IPCA projection for the year, currently at 4.6%, should be revised upwards”said Leonardo.
The inflation target is 3%, with a tolerance of up to 4.5%.
Gabriel Pestana, senior economist at , said that the surprise appeared “in a disseminated way among groups” from the IPCA. It estimated an increase of 0.75% in the month. Of the 0.13 percentage point surprise, 0.05 percentage point came from gasoline, which shows the “vast contribution from fuels” in inflation.
In food, the main highlights were the confirmation of upward biases in milk and fresh foods, according to the economist. The surprise spread across the food group.
“Together, the March IPCA reinforces the rise in fuel prices and increases the risk of indirect effects on other groups in the coming months, especially through the cost of freight”he declared.
MONETARY POLICY
Alexandre Maluf, economist at , said that the rate of 0.88% was above the top of economists’ projections. He declared that the result should not change the Central Bank’s flight plan, but financial agents are beginning to operate with caution in relation to the future of the basic rate, the Selic.
Future interest rates reacted with an upward movement. Economists calculate whether there will be room for more intense cuts or whether the trend is for a high base interest rate to keep inflation at the target in the relevant monetary policy horizon.
“It’s a worse scenario for interest rates here in Brazil and around the world. We were discussing a longer cycle here, with some people thinking that it could reach a lower Selic, close to 11%. Today the discussion is a much higher Selic. Our scenario is a Selic of 13.5% at the end of this year”said Maluf.
In March, the said that the probability of inflation remaining above the . The tolerance is up to 4.5%.
The monetary authority said that conflicts in the Middle East have increased economic uncertainty and the prolongation of the war could have an impact. The possible effects are the weakening of economic activity and the increase in inflation.
The president of the BC, Gabriel Galípolo, has already said that the impacts of the Middle East war on the economy are necessary to analyze the next steps of monetary policy. He also mentioned that it is necessary to have it in a period of uncertainty, but that Brazil has one by keeping interest rates at a high level in 2025.
The Central Bank increased the basic rate, the Selic, from 15% to 14.75% per year, used as the main tool of monetary policy. The minutes of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) said that the duration of the conflict in the Middle East.
