In an even more serious scenario, with greater damage to energy infrastructure in Iran, global growth would fall to around 2% in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (FMI) estimates that the price the energy raw materials he must rise 19% in 2026, due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, the IMF now predicts a rise in energy commodities, which contrast with the slight is left over designed in the WEO of October of 2025.
“The prices of oil should increase 21,4% due to interruptions in production and transport in the Middle East, which corresponds to an average oil price index of 82 dollars (69 euros) per barrel”, the report reads.
The prices of natural gas should be more affected than oil due to the “technical complexity of resuming production and the comparatively lower level of available reserves”.
The IMF also highlights that food prices are also expected to increase, more than projected in October 2025, due to higher energy and fertilizer prices, disrupted transport routes and increased transport costs.
The ongoing war in Iran has caused oil prices to rise, following the Iranian blockade of Hormuz, the route through which a fifth of the world’s energy production passes.
The three scenarios
The IMF also reviewed low the forecast of global growth from 3.3% to 3.1% in 2026, due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
Em Portugal, the IMF revised downwards the growth estimate for the Portuguese economy, from 2.1% to 1,9% this year.
Due to the uncertainty related to the conflict, the IMF decided to create a set of scenarios that show the possible impacts of a longer war.
No base scenario (end of the war still in 2026), global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, “slower than the recent pace of around 3.4% in 2024-2025”.
The forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points and that for 2027 remains unchanged, compared to the January 2026 World Economic Outlook update.
The IMF highlights that, before the conflict, forecasts were going to be revised upwards, so this cut is largely due to the disruptions caused by the war.
I and inflation global is expected to increase to 4.4% in 2026 and decrease to 3.7% in 2027, representing upward revisions for both years.
According to the report, in a adverse scenario, with larger and more persistent increases in energy prices, global growth would slow to 2.5% in 2026 and inflation would reach 5.4%.
And in a scenario even more grave, with greater damage to energy infrastructure in the conflict region, global growth would fall for about 2% in 2026, while general inflation would be just above 6% in 2027.
The definition of each scenario depends on the duration of the war and the damage to energy infrastructure in the region.
