Big oil companies are expected to earn US$234 billion in extraordinary profits by the end of the year, if the price of oil remains in the US$100 range
Oil companies have earned around US$30 million per hour since the beginning of , driven by the international market. One of the consequences of the conflict was the almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime route through which approximately 1/5 of the global supply of oil and gas passes.
The escalation of the conflict raised the average price per barrel to US$100 in March and should result in up to US$234 billion in extraordinary gains for the largest companies in the sector by the end of 2026, if this level is maintained.
According to the journalist, from , the estimate considers the performance of the 100 largest oil and gas companies in the world and was prepared based on data from the consultancy Rystad Energy, analyzed by the organization Global Witness. In the first month of the conflict alone, additional profits totaled US$23 billion.
The impact falls directly on consumers and companies, who face more expensive fuel and energy. In response, countries such as Italy and South Africa reduced taxes on fuel, which reduces revenue allocated to public services.
Among the companies benefiting, Saudi Aramco leads, followed by giants such as ExxonMobil, Gazprom and Chevron. Petrobras also appears among the companies with relevant gains in the period.
Here are the estimated windfall profits from March to December 2026 (at $100 barrel):
- Saudi Aramco: US$25.5 billion;
- Kuwait Petroleum: US$12.1 billion;
- ExxonMobil: US$ 11 billion;
- Gazprom: US$10.8 billion;
- Chevron: US$9.2 billion;
- PetroChina: US$9.2 billion;
- Petrobras: US$8 billion;
- Shell: US$6.8 billion;
- Rosneft: US$6.6 billion;
- ADNOC: US$6.4 billion.
In the Brazilian case, Petrobras tends to increase revenues with the appreciation of oil, but the effect is ambiguous: at the same time as it reinforces the state-owned company’s cash flow, it puts pressure on internal fuel prices and the cost of living.
The conflict also reinforced export revenues for producing countries. Russia, for example, recorded US$840 million per day in oil sales in March, an increase of 50% compared to February.
Given this scenario, international pressure is growing to tax these gains. Finance ministers from European countries defend a tax on extraordinary profits to alleviate the impact on consumers and contain inflation. The European Commission evaluates the proposal.
The oil and gas sector has been accumulating high profits for decades. The annual average exceeds US$ 1 trillion over the last 50 years, with peaks during periods of global crisis — a scenario that repeats itself again with the war in Iran.
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