The United States has begun the countdown to the first major review of the president’s second term Donald Trump. On November 3, 2026, the Republican magnate’s turbulent politics will face scrutiny at the polls in the legislative elections mid-term, those known as ‘midterm‘. In these elections, control of both chambers of the US Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate) is at stake and, historically, the appointment usually falls on the party that holds the White House.
If the current arithmetic is maintained, with a republican majority in both chambers, Trump you will be able to move forward without brakes with your political agenda until the presidential elections of 2028. But if the democrats recover some of the cameras, they could block big initiativesforce the legislative paralysis and, if they take over the House of Representatives, launch a hypothetical ‘impeachment’, the process of removing the president.
In addition to the distribution of seats, the ‘midterms’ serve as a thermometer to measure discontent with the president’s policies. Six months ahead, Trump has a record level of unpopularity, with a degree of disapproval among the electorate close to 60%.
In the legislative elections the 435 seats in the House of Representativeswhose deputies are elected every two years, and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senatewhere each senator is elected for a six-year term. The Republican majority in the House is very weak: Trump’s party has just the right 218 seats that grant the absolute majorityso he would lose control just by going back one deputy. In the Senate, the distribution of seats is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.
With six months to go until the ‘midterm’, the surveys They reflect tremendous equality between Republicans and Democrats, with a good handful of seats still up for grabs in both chambers. In the case of the House of Representativesthe projections of the main media and portals specialized in demoscopy place the Democrats closer to the absolute majorityalthough there are at least fifteen deputies still in the running.
On the contrary, polls on the Senate They give greater hope to Republicans of maintaining control of the upper house. It must be taken into account that the Republicans will put more senators into play in the midterms than the Democrats. Specifically, of the 35 seats to be renewed22 are Republicans and 13 are Democrats. Of the 65 seats that will not be renewed, the Democrats have 34 and the Republicans, 31.
If the Democrats regain the House of Representatives, for which they would only need one more seat than they have now, they will be able to decide What laws are debated in Congresswhich would leave any major initiative out of Trump’s reach, and they would go on to preside over the lower house committeessomething that would allow them, for example, to launch investigations against the president. If the Republicans lose the Senate, the Democrats will be able to veto the judicial nominations of Trump, limit his foreign policy and also preside over the upper house committees.
In the case of impeachment, the US Constitution makes it explicit that it is the House of Representatives the only one who can initiate the procedure, while the Senate deals with impeachment itself. In 2020, during Trump’s first term, Democrats used their majority in the lower house to trigger impeachment, but the Republican majority in the upper house facilitated the president’s acquittal.
On November 3 there will also be elections in 36 states to elect their governors and renew their parliaments and positions that are essential for the electoral process. The results of these votes could be of vital importance because the party that controls the secretaries of state and the attorneys general will play a decisive role in the certification of the 2024 presidential elections.
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