WASHINGTON — The United States and Israel launched the war against Iran with the argument that if Tehran ever obtained a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.
It turned out that Iran already had an instrument of deterrence: its own geography.
Tehran’s decision to flaunt its control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — the strategic chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes — has brought global economic pain in the form of higher prices for gasoline, fertilizers and other essential items. It also turned war planning in the United States and Israel upside down, which now had to design military options to wrest the strait from Iranian control.
Continues after advertising
The U.S.-Israeli-led military campaign has significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, its larger warships and missile production facilities, but has done little to restrict the country’s ability to control the strait.
Thus, Iran can emerge from the conflict with a clear roadmap for how its hard-line theocratic regime can keep adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.
“Now everyone knows that if there is a conflict in the future, closing the strait will be the first thing in the Iranian playbook,” said Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran division of Israel’s military intelligence and now a researcher at the Atlantic Council. “You can’t beat geography.”
In several social media posts on Friday, President Donald Trump said the strait, which in one message he called the “Iran Strait,” was “completely open” to navigation. The Iranian foreign minister made a similar statement. On Saturday, however, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the route remained closed, suggesting a divide between the country’s military and civilian authorities during negotiations to end the war.
If the mere threat of naval mines alone is enough to deter commercial shipping, Iran today has much more precise means of control: attack drones and short-range missiles. U.S. military and intelligence officials estimate that after weeks of war, Iran still has about 40% of its attack drone arsenal and more than 60% of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold traffic in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.
A central goal of the U.S.-led military campaign in Iran now is to reopen the strait, which was functioning normally when the war began. It’s a delicate position for Washington — and its adversaries have taken note.
Continues after advertising
“It is unclear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out. But one thing is certain: Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. They are called the Strait of Hormuz. Their potential is inexhaustible,” Dmitri Medvedev, former president of Russia and vice-president of the country’s Security Council, wrote on social media last week.
Iranian control over the strait forced Trump to announce a naval blockade of his own, and this week the US Navy began directing cargo ships to Iranian ports after they cross the route.
Iran reacted with anger, but also with irony. “The Strait of Hormuz is not social media. If someone blocks you, you can’t just block them back,” wrote on X (formerly Twitter) an Iranian diplomatic post that has been publishing sarcastic messages throughout the war. The dispute over the strait has become the subject of several AI-generated videos that portray American and Israeli officials as Lego characters.
Continues after advertising
Still, the impact of the American blockade is real. Maritime trade accounts for around 90% of Iran’s economic output — approximately US$340 million per day — and this flow has practically stopped in recent days.
Tehran considers the blockade an act of war and has already threatened to attack it. But, until now, it has not done so — just as the United States, during the current ceasefire, did not attempt to reduce Iranian control over the strait in a scenario of ending the conflict.
“It may be that the two countries see a real window for negotiations and do not want to escalate the conflict now,” said Admiral Kevin Donegan, who previously commanded the US Navy fleet responsible for the Middle East and is now in reserve, during a seminar held this week by the Middle East Institute.
Continues after advertising
Iran has tried to block the Strait of Hormuz before, spreading mines there and in the Persian Gulf during the conflict with Iraq in the 1980s. But mine warfare is dangerous, and decades later Tehran has learned to use missiles and drones to threaten warships and commercial vessels alike.
Although the US-Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s weapons manufacturing capacity, the country has preserved enough missiles, launchers and kamikaze drones to endanger traffic through the strait.
American military and intelligence estimates vary, but several officials say Iran maintains about 40% of its pre-war drone arsenal. These drones have proven to be a powerful deterrent. Although they are relatively easy to shoot down by U.S. warships, commercial oil tankers and freighters have few defenses.
Continues after advertising
Iran also has a large stockpile of missiles and launchers. At the time of the ceasefire, it had access to about half of its launchers. In the days that followed, it unearthed around 100 systems that were hidden in caves and bunkers, bringing its arsenal of launchers to something close to 60% of its pre-war level.
Tehran has also been recovering its stockpile of missiles, also buried under rubble left by American attacks on bunkers and warehouses. When this work is completed, Iran could regain up to 70% of its pre-war arsenal, according to some US projections.
Officials emphasize that the numbers on Iran’s weapons stockpile are not accurate. Intelligence assessments offer only a snapshot of how much strength the country still retains.
But while estimates of Iran’s missiles differ, there is consensus among officials that Tehran maintains enough weapons to disrupt maritime traffic in the future.
The Iranian government chose not to block the Strait of Hormuz last June, when Israel launched a military campaign — later escalated by the US — to target deeply buried nuclear facilities.
Citrinowicz, the former Israeli official, says that decision likely reflects the cautious stance of Iran’s then-Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who feared that closing the strait would prompt other countries to join the offensive against Tehran.
Ayatollah Khamenei was killed on the first day of the current war, in an action that signaled to Iranian authorities that American and Israeli objectives in this conflict were much broader.
“Iran viewed the June war as Israel’s war for its own strategic goals,” Citrinowicz said. “This is a war of regime change.”
c.2026 The New York Times Company
