The model below, in a simple and synthetic way, allows us to capture the variables that schematically describe most of the relevant movements in our lives. It was created by , whose story illustrates the force of change through imposition: a gunshot in an attempted robbery, when he was 18 years old, resulted in serious impairment of his movements, ending his plans for a medical career.
Today, more than 30 years after the accident, the , founded and directed by him, dedicated to improving educational conditions for people with disabilities, has benefited more than 2 million students in public schools.
I believe that we all prefer to place ourselves in the upper hemisphere of the image, whether to preserve a situation that pleases us, or to conduct projects in a planned and reflected way. This does not prevent important developments in our lives from being related to unforeseen events that forced changes in course.
The same thing that applies to individuals also applies to companies and even nations. The model came to mind when reflecting on the impacts of the energy crisis caused by and imagining that — just as happened with Rodrigo — changing plans could have very positive results.
The energy shortage caused by the war in Iran has global reach and its effects will be long-lasting — if not definitive —, even if the conflict ends soon.
It is worth remembering that around 75% of the world’s population lives in countries that import oil and gas, where rising prices and, much worse, the specter of rationing cause profound dysfunctions in economic life. This is especially true in Asia, the destination of more than 80% of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports through .
The immediate reaction of Asian countries is to resort to cheaper and more available energy, especially , and to initiate measures that anticipate more radical rationing — such as limiting physical presence at work and the use of air conditioning — that are reminiscent of the situation we are experiencing in .
The impacts of the crisis are not naturally limited to Asia. In the European Union, the Energy Authority declares that “the crisis will be long and prices will remain high for a long time” and “all measures, including rationing, are under review”.
Oil and gas are commodities whose price is determined on international markets. Therefore, even in producing countries, which have ample stocks and reserves, the impact on the price is felt. This is the case in the USA, where it causes widespread dissatisfaction. Even in Brazil, where the aim is to protect consumers from increases (also at the expense of minority shareholders, it is worth remembering), the crisis has serious consequences, such as those currently affecting oil-dependent sectors.
As seen, the immediate effects of the crisis — as often occurs after accidents — are a kind of “save anyone who can”, with each country seeking to contain the immediate damage in any way possible. It is difficult to find immediate beneficiaries in this scenario, other than the oil producing companies. But even in this case, the effects are not as large as one might imagine; shares of major oil groups rose in the 30 days after the start of the war by 10% to 40%, while oil prices increased by 50% to 75%.
There was, however, another type of company whose shares appear to have benefited from the crisis; shares in , a Chinese electric car producer, rose around 15% while the market value of the three largest Chinese battery companies rose by around 20% 30 days after the start of the conflict.
If the appreciation of oil companies is attributable to the increase in the price of oil in the short term, the duration of which is, however, uncertain, the appreciation of Chinese companies is due to the prospect of a vigorous increase in demand for oil, in the short, medium and long term.
The crisis highlights once again and beyond any doubt the risks of dependence on energy imported from other regions. None of this is new.
The potentially transformational news is that this is the first global energy crisis to occur when there is wide availability of equipment linked to renewable energy — such as solar panels, batteries and wind turbines — at affordable prices, enabling importing countries to overcome their vulnerability.
Just as a terrible accident led to the creation of an exemplary institute, a war resulting from the isolated initiative of a single country could determine a definitive acceleration in the global adoption of renewable energy, with significant benefits for everyone. In what a New York Times writer called “tragic irony,” it was the most fossil fuel-friendly government in recent US history to point this way.
Returning to the beginning, I observe that serious ruptures bring us down and divert us from the path; but they don’t tell us where to go. Taking a new path, especially one that is virtuous, depends on clarity of thought, values, courage and determination.
I conclude by expressing my great admiration to Rodrigo.
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