Why is Trump giving Iran time? The silence of Tehran and the diplomatic gamble

Γιατί δίνει χρόνο στο Ιράν ο Τραμπ; Η σιωπή της Τεχεράνης και το διπλωματικό στοίχημα

He met Tuesday afternoon with the national security team at the White House, facing an important decision: What decision to make about the .

The ceasefire deadline was nearing its end, while Air Force Two was on the runway at Joint Base Andrews ahead of the Vice President’s scheduled departure for Pakistan for the next round of talks. However, the government faced almost total silence from the Iranian side.

The list of key points

In the previous days, the US had sent Iran a list of key points of agreement that it wanted the Iranian side to accept in advance. But days passed without a response, raising doubts about how much Vance and his associates could accomplish by going to Pakistan for live talks, according to three officials cited by CNN.

As Trump met with Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kaine and CIA Director John Ratcliffe at the White House, the US side had yet to receive any response from Iran. Officials had asked Pakistan’s top negotiator, Marshal Asim Munir, to secure at least some response before Vance boarded Air Force Two.

However, hours later, nothing happened.

In the White House, top Trump aides believe that the main reason for the lack of a response is the internal disagreements in the current leadership of Iran, as is partly revealed by information from Pakistani mediators. The US side believes the Iranians have not come to a common line on either their position or how much power they will give negotiators over uranium enrichment and enriched uranium stockpiles, a key sticking point in the talks.

Part of that complexity, according to the US, is whether the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, or they are forced to guess his intentions without specific instructions.

US officials believe his choice to remain invisible has disrupted internal discussions within the Iranian government.

Despite those significant hurdles, one official said there was still a chance American and Iranian negotiators could meet soon. However, when and if this will happen remains uncertain.

Trump’s choice

Instead of repeating military strikes, Trump chose to extend the ceasefire with Iran for two more weeks, shortly before it expired. This time, he did not set a specific end date. Trump, who called Iran’s government “severely divided” in a post on Truth Social, remains eager to find a diplomatic solution, avoiding restarting an unpopular conflict that he has said the US has already won.

However, the temporary breakdown in negotiations highlights the difficulties he continues to face as he pursues a deal that satisfies his numerous demands.

Iran has publicly stated that Trump must lift the embargo on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz before a new round of talks can begin. Trump has rejected that request. “We’re not going to open the strait until there’s a final deal,” he told CNBC Tuesday morning.

In another late-afternoon meeting, Trump and his aides decided to extend the cease-fire, which was due to expire in a few hours, although he believed it would last until Wednesday night in Washington. In theory, that could give Iran more time to forge a unified position with Khamenei’s approval, though officials stressed there is no guarantee.

Soon the solution?

Officials said a trip could be quickly arranged if there are signs Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table. Both the US and Tehran are suffering economic losses while the strait remains effectively closed, leading some in the region to hope that both sides will soon seek a solution.

Pakistani officials, who were trying on Tuesday to persuade Iran to join the talks, also encouraged Trump to extend the ceasefire. As it neared its expiration, Trump decided to “extend it until their proposal is filed and the discussions are completed, one way or the other.”

Iranian officials did not appear to be affected.

“, said Mahdi Mohammadi, adviser to the speaker of the Iranian parliament. “The losing side cannot impose conditions. The continued blockade is no different from bombing and must be met militarily.”

Trump’s announcement that the ceasefire remains in place capped a day full of uncertainty, which began with him saying he “expects to bomb” Iran again in the near future.

Still, without a new deadline, his advisers have warned privately that easing pressure could allow Iran to delay negotiations.

At best, negotiators hoped to reach this week a basic framework for a U.S.-Iran deal that would lead to more detailed talks in the coming weeks.

However, this approach has had critics, who warn that Iran may be deliberately delaying the talks to buy time as it recovers some of its missile systems that were buried during the war.

Many critical issues—such as the future possibility of uranium enrichment, the fate of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and the lifting of sanctions—remain unresolved.

How flexible each side is will ultimately determine whether a deal can be reached. For Trump, a key issue is not agreeing to anything reminiscent of the Obama-era deal on Iran’s nuclear program, which he pulled out of in 2018 and which he has repeatedly described as weak.

“I think we will come to an excellent agreement”

In recent days, Trump has appeared optimistic about reaching a better deal, relying on his negotiating skills, even going so far as to say that he would have “won the war in Vietnam very quickly” if he had been president.

“I think we’re going to get a great deal,” he said. “They have no other choice. We have neutralized their navy, their air force, their leaders — which, of course, complicates the situation in one respect.”

A few hours later, during an event honoring student-athletes, Trump avoided mentioning the war, greeting reporters who tried to ask him questions before leaving the room.

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