The peace negotiations in Islamabad continue this Saturday full of uncertainty and contradictory signs after Iran categorically affirm that his Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchipresent in the Pakistani capital, does not plan to meet with White House envoys, Steve Witkoff y Jared Kushnerwhose trip was announced by the US Administration.
Friday’s messages, with a visit by Araghchi to Pakistan that seemed to open the door to the resumption of direct bilateral talks, and Washington’s immediate response stating that its envoys would meet with him, have cooled with the passing of the hours to reveal a still complex situation in which neither party wants to show that it has given an inch.
A thaw?
“No meeting between Iran and the United States is expected to occur. Iran’s observations would be communicated to Pakistan,” the Iranian authorities stated early this Saturday, slamming the door on speculation about a possible bilateral meeting.
It is not clear if the dry message is only for Iranian internal consumption and to appease its hardest sectors without giving an inch on its red line of eliminating the naval blockade before returning to negotiations, but the truth is that Tehran always framed Araghchi’s trip as a bilateral meeting with its counterparts in Pakistan, Oman and Russia.
The presence of the diplomat, who is not the designated negotiator to deal with the US, is best explained by the simple fact that Iran wants to directly convey to the mediators its proposal to resume or advance negotiations. That in itself is a thaw, after almost a week of silence and refusals, although it is still far from being a green light for the negotiations themselves.
Furthermore, Iran seems to want to offer Pakistan a goodwill gesture to show that they are interested in dialogue and also reward the three-day visit that the head of the Pakistani Defense Forces and main mediator in this conflict, Asim Munir, made to Iran last week.
Pakistanembarked on an incessant mediation effort, is incessantly transmitting that the meeting may be imminent, and still keeps its capital blocked and under severe traffic and security limitations. Islamabad wants to see the fruits of its political and prestige efforts as soon as possible.
Gira regional
It is also relevant that the Iranian addresses Oman after passing through Pakistan. masked was the main mediator between the US and Iran before the Government of Donald Trump decided to start war against Tehran even while working to keep diplomatic channels open.
There is no doubt that in Muscat there will be discussions about the closure of the Strait of Hormuzwhose sovereignty it shares with Tehran and whose reopening is key for all parties to this conflict and, in fact, for the entire global economy.
Con Russiaone of Tehran’s biggest allies and a country that now has a direct channel with the US Administration, the trip will most likely focus on the issue of nuclear program Iranian. Russia has already offered on numerous occasions to receive the enriched uranium Iranian, and could offer some way out of what seems to be the main obstacle to peace.
In any case, furthermore, the times and distances that Araghchi plans to travel these days make a meeting in Islamabad unfeasible, except for a last-minute program change.
The American envoys have not yet left their country and the trip takes more than 15 hours. It doesn’t look like the diplomat is going to stay here all that time. If anything, the bilateral meeting could take place after the Iranian diplomat concludes his time in the three countries, already with the results of his tour in hand.
Power rhetoric
Meanwhile, it also becomes evident that neither party wants to give inat least in his effort to control the story.
Washington stated yesterday that Witkoff and Kushner would travel after having identified “some progress” by Tehran in recent days, and after it was Iran that requested a direct meeting, which suggests that some diplomatic channels have remained open these days. In parallel, the US continues to detain Iranian merchant ships and oil tankers as part of the naval blockade that Trump ordered to remain in force despite the fact that it is Iran’s main red line to return to direct negotiations.
He also imposed yesterday new financial sanctions to the Persian country, aimed at attacking its oil trade.
Iranian and American rhetoric openly clashes, with Washington wanting to convey that it is Tehran that has given in and with the Iranians actively and passively denying that possibility.
