Donald J. Trump is trapped. You need to get out of a war where he is losing everything.
According to the summary of dozens of surveys from different organizations since his inauguration, published by The New York Times This Saturday, April 25, your approval level already falls below 40%with 58% who censure the president.
He 60% disapprove of his management of the war with Iran, including 30% affiliated with the Republican party.
And if you go to the levels of approval of economic policy, it is registering new falls: only 31% -a drop of 8 percentage points in two months- feels good about the Trumpeconomics.
that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives in the mid-term legislative elections next November, it is considered a fact, but now, even the Senate, does not seem to be assured.
His bravado is being exposed as he confronts Iran day after day.
Yesterday, Saturday, April 25, after it was announced that Trump’s envoys – his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his friend the real estate magnate Steve Witkoff-They left for Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, to force a meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, -on a fleeting visit there, heading to Moscow- the president asked the North American delegation to unpack their suitcasesgiven that Iran publicly reported that it did not plan to resume negotiations. If they make the trip, Trump’s envoys would arrive after Araghchi leaves Islamabad.
The Iranian minister published on social media upon leaving the country that he had shared with Pakistan, sponsor of the negotiations, a “viable framework to permanently end the war in Iran.” He added: “It remains to be seen if the United States is really serious about diplomacy.”.
What a rudeness. An announced rudeness, but no less spectacular.
Last Friday, April 24, CentCom, the US Central Command, based in Tampa, Florida, released the following statement with photos of three aircraft carriers. “For the first time in decadesthree aircraft carriers are operating in the Middle East at the same time. The Lincoln, Gerald Ford and George HW Bush include more than 200 aircraft and 15,000 soldiers and marines.”
The Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, Marco Rubioshook the political hornet’s nest when, candidly, admitted that Israel had led the Trump administration to the Iran war (see video cut). Later I try to qualify his statements. But here a few days ago, on April 21, the State Department included a statement where that story is black on white.
“Operation Epic Fury is just the latest phase of an ongoing international armed conflict with Iran… The United States participates in this conflict at the request of its Israeli ally and in collective self-defense, as well as in the exercise of their own inherent right to self-defense.”
Statement in which the US explains that it attacked Iran for Israel. / EPC
If Trump and Netanyahu’s stated political goal was derror of the government of the ayatollahs –regime change or regime change It has been achieved that whoever assumes control is the one called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the most radical military apparatus in Iran.
At the same time, the objective of destroying military capacity through the blowing up of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones – as well as the brake on their production – has suffered a resounding failure.
Iran, on the other hand, has applied a military strategy that has caused material damage never before experienced in 15 North American military bases installed for decades in the countries of the Persian Gulf. The US Army has had to abandon a good part of those bases where there are no longer military personnel.
And, furthermore, the objective of steal the uranium already enriched and stored by Iran in Isfahanthrough a special mission from the North American Air Force, turned out to be a fiasco.
Economic objectives
If the political and military objectives have failed so far, what can we say about the economic ones?
In physical transactions, world oil prices were at the line of 60/65 dollars per barrel last January. Now these future transactions – what are called “paper purchases and sales” – are carried out at a little more than 100 dollars/barrel.
But if you buy to have crude oil immediately, you pay 30 or 40 dollars more. That is to say: the price scales at 130 or 140 dollars per barrel.
Why do we have to point out this price? Because he is the one who rules for consumers. This is what leads to paying 4.02/4.05 dollars for a gallon of gasoline. That is to say: if a gallon is equivalent to 3.7 liters and converted to euros, a liter of gasoline is worth less than 1 euro in the US.
But, of course, the price Americans pay of $4.02 per gallon was $2.94 before the start of the war, on February 28, which represents a 37% rise. And it is the highest since 2022.
Now, we are not just talking about a tight supply of crude oil. Iran’s resistance has led to attacks on dozens of refineries in the Persian Gulf, which have been damaged to produce, which will require months of reconstruction.
And finally, the Strait of Hormuz. It has never been closed or under unilateral control by Iran. The war caused the shutdown and gave Iran an unprecedented negotiating weapon. Trump’s announced blockade of ships to and from Iranian portss has not managed to reopen this road of water through which, normally, 20% of the world’s oil and gas circulate, not to mention 35% of fertilizers.
Iran is charging $2 million to each tanker that wants to bypass the blockade to transport oil through the Strait of Hormuz according to a route that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard establishes. According to Lloyd’s, the British insurance market, 11 Iranian oil tankers have managed to bypass the blockade of Trump’s blockade until April 20.
Destroy Tehran, that has been achieved by Trump and Netanyahu, who, in addition, is violating, as was foreseeable, the ceasefire agreed upon in Lebanon, whose southern territories he intends, as with Gaza and the West Bank, to annex.
Resume attacks? Attempt a crazy ground invasion?
Trump has lost this war. But the costs so far may be an appetizer if you opt for Hitler-style madness in the Berlin bunker. They can be even more devastating for the US and the entire world if it is preparing an escalation to save face.
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