The war in Ukraine could change significantly on May 9th (or from that day)

For the first time in almost 20 years, the parade in Moscow will not feature military equipment. There will be a special intention from Putin.

The parade of May 9 em Moscow this year will be held no military equipment. No tanks, no artillery pieces, no missiles.

It has not happened since 2007. The Kremlin, through its Ministry of Defense, justifies this change with the “current operational situation”.

“In the context of terrorist threat, It is clear that all types of measures are being taken to minimize risks”, commented spokesperson Dmitri Peskov.

But there will be another real reason for this break in tradition.

It could be the beginning of a new multifaceted plan in the war against Ukraine.

In , political analyst Ihar Tyshkevych begins by recalling that for Vladimir Putin, this large-scale parade in Moscow has always been a significant event. A demonstration of military power.

On May 9, 1945, the Soviet Union defeated Nazi Germany. It is “Victory Day”, still celebrated today with grandeur, year after year.

This time, the parade is not the priority, it is not parading. It’s mobilizing.

The Kremlin claims that there is a real possibility of a Ukraine attack during the military parade.

“That would be logical. But it is very strange that parades (with the transfer of military equipment) are not canceled in other cities,” comments Tyshkevych.

Mobilization

The expert leaves another warning: “Pay attention to the change in Putin’s rhetoric. He started talking about terrorist attacks, so I am inclined to believe that this (holding a low-key parade in Moscow) is part of the same process.”

“This process can actually lead to a decision to mobilization in Russia. In their propaganda, the Russians emphasize that this is not a war against Ukraine, but against the collective West, against NATO, against the EU. In other words, they can declare that They need a win this year. They really need a change in the situation at the front this year.”

With this context, TSN writes that the war in Ukraine could change significantly on May 9.

According to Tyshkevich, Putin’s theory is: “To save people, we don’t even dare to hold a parade with military equipment; we need a victory, one for all, that’s why the mobilization is being announced”.

In other words, continues Ihar Tyshkevych, the absence of a complete parade is the first step in the entire process. “Then, we need to look beyond the rhetoric. For mobilization to occur in Russia, Putin needs to incite fear; he relies on fear.”

Remembering the second war Chechnya, “how fear was incited – houses were exploding in Russia. Putin incited fear among the population, declaring that this was terrorism.”

Now the speech also raises an alleged “terrorist threat” coming from Ukraine: “We are in the initial stages of a similar spiral. If Putin, in the near future, speaks more and more frequently about the growing threat of terrorism, this could mean that the mobilization is a path”.

One goal of Russia’s president will be to spread the message: note that because of the Ukrainian “terrorists,” we don’t even have the usual parade because they are dangerous. We need more men, more resources. We need to win.

A new “Victory Day”.

Or a victory starting to be built that day.

Or, by May 9th, Russia could intensify the bombing of Odessa, deliberately destroying infrastructure.

Why Odessa? Because Odessa ports are the only ‘window’ for exports. This is a vulnerable point for Ukraine. “Attacks on Odessa could increase.”