He pistachio It was for decades one of the star crops of Iran and a national symbol. But today the market dominates it USA. The turn began after the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the hostage crisisin a relationship marked by the 1953 coup d’état supported by the US. Embargoes, sanctions and tariffs reduced the space for Iranian products and opened an opportunity for California.
A generation later, the roles had been reversed. Pistachio fields in California doubled between 2012 and 2022, and the US took over the so-called Iranian nut. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked and Iran’s trade under pressure, buyers still flocking to this country are looking alternatives Americans.
“When there is an interruption or a shortage, buyers who would normally go to Iran or Turkey start calling everywhere,” Stephen Vasquez, executive director of the Administrative Committee for Pistachios, which represents the producers of 99% of US pistachios, explains to EL PERIÓDICO.
The US plans to produce some 713,000 tons this season, the 65% of the world harvest. Iran estimated about 200,000, less than 20%, before the war. “The limited amount of pistachios in the world and right now the demand is enormous,” says Vasquez, referring to the so-called dubai chocolate. “Our producers are already being contacted. There has been an increase in requests for American pistachio,” he adds. The US exports about 75% of its production.
The California Persian Seed
The pistachio Californian It literally comes from Iran. The variety Kerman It takes its name from the Iranian province from which the American botanist William E. Whitehouse took the first fruits to plant at home. That trip provided the initial foundation for American industry.
Iranian rule began to break after 1979. The hostage crisis accelerated the embargoes. In 1986, the United States imposed special tariffs to Iranian pistachios to make what it considered a foreign product sold at an artificially low price more expensive. The rate, 241%, closed the US market to Iran and gave California time to grow within the country before going abroad.
The export turnaround came in 2011, when the US surpassed Iran as an exporter of pistachios. In 2016 it was already world leader of the crop. Today she puts a wide distance behind those who follow her, Iran and Türkiye. The American industry maintains that its advantage no longer depends only on politics, but on scale, quality, consistency y availability.
“Between 2012 and 2022, on average, more than 30,000 acres of pistachios were planted per year,” explains David Magaña, analyst at Rabobank. California produced 726,000 tons in the last big harvest. Magaña remembers that the investment was massive but the profitability is long-term: It takes between six and seven years for a tree to produce its first harvest.. They weighed the economic incentives and the droughtwhich led to replacing almond trees with pistachio trees. “People saw that their neighbor with pistachios was doing well and started planting,” he summarizes from Fresno.
The trend for Dubai chocolate, filled with pistachio cream, does not by itself explain the market, but it has boosted the visibility of the ingredient / Ismael Herrero / EFE
Power, water and exports
The business, however, is in few hands. Wonderful, Stewart and Lynda Resnick’s company, grows a quarter of the US pistachio and processes an even larger portion of the raw fruit. Its strength is also based on large estates and the control of groundwatera key resource in a state hit by droughts.
The United States not only sells pistachios to Europa o Asia. He also places them in Middle East y Africathe regional environment where Iran was the natural reference for decades. That market already represents 20% of US exports until March 2026.
Magaña believes that the crisis favors the US in the short term, although it could also hit its regional sales. “Pistachios are affected by all the trade interruptions in the Middle East: due to input costs and fertilizersbecause of logistics and because Iran is a competitor in the international market,” he explains. With Hormuz closed, Iran can distribute to nearby countries that the US does not reach. But Asia and Europe are more open for California. “Buyers must already be making changes,” says Magaña.
Rising prices and new demand
Los prices They already reflect the tension. Pistachio in shell has risen around 20% in the last 18 months. The pressure mixes uncertainty in the Middle East, logistical costs, strong demand, popularity of pistachio as an ingredient and a smaller than expected Californian harvest.
Magaña anticipates “that prices will continue to rise,” because the harvest will be smaller than the previous one and because commercial difficulties remain open. The context coincides with another fundamental change: the pistachio is no longer a niche product. It appears in healthy snacks, ice creams, coffees, creams, premium pastries and chocolate bars. The fashion for Dubai chocolate, filled with pistachio cream, does not by itself explain the market, but it has triggered the visibility of the ingredient just when Iran has the most problems placing its product.
The risk of tariffs
The tariff war of Trump also worries the sector. “The European Union is a very important market for American pistachio producers,” says Stephen Vasquez, who travels to Brussels once a year on behalf of the Administrative Committee for Pistachios.
Producers want to sell more, but fear being caught up in political disputes that they do not control. “We would love to have a open and free trade. But governments do what governments do,” Vasquez summarizes. “The agriculture always ends up being used as currency of exchangein one way or another,” he adds.
The Persian pistachio, which arrived and grew in California in the heat of the embargoes of the 1980s and ended up becoming one of the most dynamic agricultural exports of the United States, is now once again trapped by war and sanctions. But the US is once again the best prepared commercially and reaps the fruit of a hegemony built over decades with investment, geopolitics, tariffs and sanctions.
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