The 2026 roadmap began with a high dose of optimism for the real estate sector, with the expectation of a cut in interest rates of around 15%, which punished the sector for much of 2025, and which materialized in the last two meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). However, less than a week after the Selic was reduced to 14.50%, a plot twist added a layer of suspense – and pessimism – to the country’s real estate development: the release of 20% of the balance of its second largest source of resources, the Service Time Guarantee Fund (FGTS), to pay off debts.
This Monday morning (04), the second edition of the national debt renegotiation program, in an attempt to remedy the record debt of the Brazilian population. The focus of the program is to attack the most expensive debts in the household budget, such as credit cards, overdrafts and personal credit. Among the measures announced was the authorization to use up to 20% of your FGTS balance to reduce debts, with direct transfer from Caixa Econômica Federal to the creditor bank.
The expectation is that Desenrola 2.0 will serve low- and medium-income people, with a salary of up to five minimum wages – the target audience for subsidized real estate financing lines, within the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program and/or using FGTS when purchasing the property.
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The Brazilian Association of Developers (ABRAINC) expressed concern about the announcement. According to the entity’s simulation, considering estimates of withdrawals between R$4.5 billion (Base Estimate) and R$8.2 billion (Global Maximum Limit) from the FGTS, between 59 thousand and 107 thousand jobs (direct and indirect) would no longer be created in the housing system and between 25 thousand and 46 thousand families would no longer have access to housing units.
With the reduction in business, the association also states that the State would no longer collect between R$1.4 billion and R$2.4 billion from the sector and would face a reduction of up to R$10.7 billion in GDP, due to the “loss of investment”.
“For ABRAINC, the withdrawal of these resources from the housing system generates a direct impact on the economy, as the sector has a high multiplier effect. For every R$1 billion invested in housing, 13 thousand jobs and R$300 million in taxes are generated”, stated the entity in a note.
“We are exchanging the reserve of a life, destined to the acquisition of our own home, for an immediate payment of debts that tend to reappear. Money, in itself, does not solve the problem. Using the Fund, which is a long-term asset, to pay short-term revolving interest is a palliative that has already proven ineffective in previous cycles, without changing the worker’s future solvency”, claimed Luiz França, president of ABRAINC.
On the civil construction side, the Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC), said that the release of FGTS resources to resolve debt could especially impact the execution of the Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) program. “For the construction sector, new releases of resources from the Fund increase the scenario of uncertainty generated by the combination of high interest rates, the increase in the cost of works amplified by the oil crisis resulting from the war in the Middle East, the impact of the implementation of the tax reform and the discussion of reducing working hours”, he stated in a note.
InfoMoney reached out to the publicly listed companies most exposed to housing programs and almost all of them declined to talk. MRV, Cury, Direcional, Tenda denied the request for comment. Plano & Plano and Cyrela did not respond to the request at the time of publication.
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The moment is sensitive. Cyrela, MRV and Cury were among the biggest falls on the Ibovespa in this Monday’s session, with drops of 4.17%, 2.89% and 2.53% around 3pm. Direcional also gave up 1.32%. The only increase was from Plano & Plano, which rose 3%, in a correction movement after falling 4.32% last week. Since April 17, the Stock Exchange’s Real Estate Index has fallen 12.41%.
Surprise?
Positions shared by agents in the real estate sector today do not reflect what opened the year, which did not mention any concern about a potential diversion of R$8 billion in the FGTS in the short term.
Desenrola 2.0 is not the first program that uses the fund as a remedy for the population’s indebtedness – the balance of inactive accounts has already been withdrawn during the government, in addition to the , which began during the pandemic and remains active.
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Furthermore, the real estate sector has long discussed the need to diversify and expand its financing, with a focus on reducing dependence on the SBPE (Brazilian Savings and Loan System), the main type of real estate financing in Brazil, which has been drained by savings accounts.
Since the second half of 2025, some good news has arrived, injecting a good dose of encouragement into housing, such as with income above R$ 12 thousand, financed by the release of part of the compulsory savings collection for banks, and the increase in the limits of Minha Casa, Minha Vida.
Last Wednesday (27) the second Selic cut of the year took place, addressing the great concern voiced by the sector throughout last year and in its optimistic communications, but now drowned out by the “diversion” of the FGTS to Desenrola.
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FGTS in the real estate sector
The FGTS is the second largest financier in the real estate sector, especially housing. In 2025, the fund accounted for R$138 billion of the R$324 billion in new financing, considering all segments, from commercial to residential, equivalent to around 43% of the total, according to data from . In stock, there are R$702 billion from a portfolio of R$6.23 trillion, or 27% of the total – behind only savings (SBPE), with 29%.
The fund’s total budget amounts to R$160.5 billion, of which R$144.5 billion, or almost 90%, is earmarked for housing in 2026. Within this amount, approximately R$13 billion is allocated to subsidies, which reduce the down payment and make purchasing viable for lower-income families.
