It is becoming more frequent and there is less “afraid” to say it. The president of Finland, Alexander Stubb, has issued one of the harshest warnings about the future of Europe since the beginning of the . As he stated during a conference held in the Czech Republic, The continent has a very limited “window of opportunity” to prepare for the new geopolitical and military scenario.
Time is running out and perhaps it is already too late. Stubb is not so pessimistic, within pessimism: “We have an opportunity that will not last long. Maybe five years,” he warns in that conference, whose most relevant phrases have been published in the .
The statement comes at a time of maximum international tension, with the war between Russia and Ukraine still open, an increasingly cold relationship between Europe and the United States and growing fear that Washington will progressively reduce its role as guarantor of European security.
“The world order has changed”
During his speech at the conference “Europe as a task”, Stubb assured that the continent is experiencing a historic turning point comparable to the end of the Cold War. As he explained, the feeling of stability and international openness that existed after the fall of the Soviet Union ended definitively. “This era ended in February 2022,” he indicates.
The reference points directly to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that has changed European defense policy and has forced many governments to increase military spending after decades of reduction. The Finnish leader also believes that the new US foreign policy further accelerates this global change.
Europe fears depending less on the US
One of the most important points of the speech was the role of the US within NATO. Stubb warned that Washington demands more military responsibility from Europe, is changing your vision of multilateralism and maintain different priorities in international politics.
European fear has intensified following statements by Americans in Europe. The German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, also spoke on this matter during an official visit to Sweden, ensuring that “we must be able to count on the protection of the US” and recognized that Europe will have to reinforce its own military weight if Washington reduces its presence on the continent: “The smaller the US military presence in Europe, the greater Europe’s must be,” he noted.
Russia remains the main threat
The Finnish president was especially forceful regarding Moscow: “We are under security pressure from the East, particularly from Russia, and this pressure will not stop“The statements come as attacks between Russia and Ukraine continue despite cross ceasefire announcements.
Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of continuing to launch drones against Ukrainian territory during the night, violating the truce announced by kyiv. For its part, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted dozens of Ukrainian drones over Crimea and the Black Sea. The exchange of accusations reflects that the war is still far from being resolvedtemporary ceasefires are barely respected and the risk of escalation remains present. Everything points to a conflict of several more years or until one party exhausts itself.
The new idea of Europe: more defense and more integration
Stubb argued that Europe needs to strengthen itself on several fronts at the same time: defence, security, foreign policy, financial markets, research, energy and climate. In addition, he called for expanding the European Union to the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova, and even Norway, Iceland and one day the United Kingdom.
The Finnish president believes that European defense can no longer continue to be fragmented into national projects and that “stronger joint solutions” are needed. Their approach is that NATO provides the military structure and the EU must provide resources, investment and industrial capacity.
Five decisive years for Europe
Stubb’s phrase about the “five years” sums up the growing fear in many European capitals: The continent could enter a much more insecure stage if it does not accelerate its strategic transformation now. Europe is simultaneously facing the war in Ukraine, Russian military pressure, the possible partial withdrawal of the US, energy and economic tensions and internal political fragmentation.
For this reason, several European leaders are beginning to speak openly about continental rearmament, strategic autonomy and common European defense.
