Is this it? The United States Government believes it is on the verge of an unprecedented diplomatic advance to end the war with Iran. “It will be over soon,” its president, Donald Trump, said this morning. And, according to reports published by the North American intelligence portal Axioslater verified by media such as the British BBC, the archenemies are finalizing a single-page memorandum of understanding (MoU) – something so simple and humble – but which would serve as a roadmap for the total cessation of the conflict and the resolution of the crisis in the Persian Gulf.
The heart of the negotiation is a 14-point proposal, initially pushed by mediators in Pakistan, that seeks a phased approach to peace. Unlike previous attempts, this document proposes separating the end of the war from the complex nuclear negotiations to avoid a total stalemate. It is something that the ayatollah regime had already proposed before, but Washington had not accepted it. Now it seems so.
These are the key points known so far:
- End of the war: It includes an official declaration of the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including the conflict in Lebanon.
- Opening of maritime routes: The mutual commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, vital for 20% of the world’s oil supply, and the gradual lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.
- 30 day trading period: Once the MoUs are signed, a period of one month would open to finalize the technical details on the nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions.
- Nuclear concessions: Iran would accept a uranium enrichment limit of 3.67% (civilian level) and allow “surprise” IAEA inspections. In addition, the transfer of its inventory of highly enriched uranium outside the country, possibly to the United States, is being negotiated.
- Economic relief: The US would gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.
- Mediation and key actors: The negotiations have been led by high-profile figures in the Trump environment, including Steve Witkoff (his usual special envoy) and Jared Kushner (unofficial advisor and son-in-law), who have maintained direct contacts and through intermediaries in Islamabad, Pakistan.
Although Trump has been skeptical on his social media, stating that Iran “has not yet paid a high enough price,” White House officials cited by Axios They confirm that Tehran’s response is expected in the next 48 hours.
This advance comes after weeks of extreme tension, of enormous wear and tear, not only regionally but globally, due to the economic effects that the practically complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz has on the planet, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil passed before the war.
The conflict, which escalated after joint attacks by the US and Israel on February 28, has left the Iranian economy in ruins and caused a global energy crisis. In April, a 15-day ceasefire was agreed upon that was extended indefinitely by Trump, allowing the diplomatic space necessary for this new memorandum.
From Iran, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baghaei, has indicated that the current objective is to “end the war instead of simply extending truces”, although he insists that any agreement must be “fair” and guarantee Iranian sovereignty over its waters. Risks and challenges Despite optimism, obstacles remain.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf appeared to mock reports that the two sides were close to a deal, writing on social media in English: “Operation Trust Me Brother has failed.” Qalibaf claimed that these reports constituted a US propaganda maneuver following its failure to open the Strait of Hormuz. It must be taken into account that the Iranians do not stop repeating that the Americans are not trustworthy because on two previous occasions, when they were immersed in negotiations with them, they took the opportunity to attack them, both last summer and last February.
The clerics’ proposal to withdraw all US forces from the region and the payment of compensation for war damage remain sticking points. Additionally, if the 30-day negotiations fail, Washington has warned that the naval blockade and military operations could resume immediately.
The Epaminondas ship, during its seizure by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Strait of Hormuz, on April 24, 2026.
“They want to reach an agreement”
Tonight, Trump has seemed optimistic, but it must be recognized that what he has said he has been repeating for weeks, since the armistice came into force, a way to buy time and not be forced to ask for Congress’s support for his war adventure, after the 60 days in which he could have his hands more or less free.
“They want to reach an agreement. We have had very productive conversations in the last 24 hours, and it is very possible that we will reach an agreement,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, later adding that this crisis “will be resolved quickly.”
NBC News, citing two unnamed US officials, reported yesterday that Trump’s sudden change of stance to abide by what he previously did not want came after Saudi Arabia suspended the US military’s authorization to use a Saudi base in the operation.
Saudi officials were surprised and outraged by the Republican’s announcement that the US would help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which led them to communicate to Washington that they would deny the US permission to operate military aircraft from a Saudi base or through Saudi airspace, according to this media. The White House has not publicly acknowledged it.
The US military has maintained its own blockade of Iranian ships in the region. Central Command reported that the military fired on an empty Iranian-flagged oil tanker on Wednesday, immobilizing it as it attempted to sail toward an Iranian port in violation of the blockade. No new attacks have been reported.
Markets soared
Reports of a possible deal sent global oil prices tumbling to two-week lows on Wednesday. Benchmark Brent crude futures fell nearly 11% to around $98 a barrel (LCOc1) before recovering to surpass $100, Reuters reports.
Global stocks also rose and bond yields fell on optimism over the end of the war that has disrupted energy supplies. “The content of the US-Iran peace proposals is thin, but there is an expectation in the market that there will be no further military action,” said Takamasa Ikeda, senior portfolio manager at GCI Asset Management.
For now, the world is cautiously watching what could be the end of one of the most dangerous conflicts of the decade, hoping that the “one-page memo” will be the first step toward lasting stability in the Middle East.
