Scotland He went to the polls this Thursday with a feeling of being fed up and disaffection for the big parties. The high cost of living, the difficulties in accelerating economic growth and the weakening of public services have taken their toll on voters and given impetus to hitherto minority formations such as the Verdes or the ultras of Reform UK. Everything indicates, however, that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will manage to cushion the punishment vote and remain in the Government – despite the wear and tear of two decades in power – thanks to its main flag: the fight for independence.
Even though the secession figure in the sixth place on the list of Scots’ priorities, behind other issues such as the economy, health or immigration, SNP has once again appealed to independence vote and has insisted on his willingness to call a second referendum in 2028 if it achieves a majority in Parliament, either alone or in coalition with the Greens. The chief minister and nationalist candidate, John Swinneyhas dedicated much of the campaign to this issue, arguing that independence will allow reduce energy prices and improve the economic situation in the nation.
Division in the polls
The defenders of independence rely on the surveys to demand the holding of a new referendum, but the truth is that recent demographic studies launch contradictory results: one of them, published by the newspaper The Times at the end of April, indicates that the favorable vote would reach a 55%in front of a 45% what would I vote against. On the contrary, another survey, prepared by the Ipsos population center, indicates that the ‘no’ would prevail in a hypothetical vote if undecided voters are excluded from the equation.
“When talking about these surveys, they often exclude undecided votersbut in reality they represent between 10% and 20% of those surveyed,” he says. Alastair Cameronpresident of the unionist association Scotland for Union. “I think it is reasonable to assume that, faced with a great leap into the unknown, many people who do not have things clear “They are not going to support that big leap.”he adds. The unionists also warn that the way in which the question is formulated influences the results of the polls, something that, in their opinion, shows that currently there is no majority support by the population.
Westminster opposition
In his plans for the first 100 days of Government after the elections, the SNP described independence as “core” of your proposal. The match is planned push for a vote in the first session of the new Parliament to pass an order giving Scotland the power to hold a new consultation, as well as starting talks with the British Government to transfer the skills necessary to carry it out.
There are doubts, however, about London’s willingness to accept a new call. Ian Grantpresident of the organization Independence Forum Scotlandis pessimistic about this possibility, but assures that the Scottish Government should move forward with your purpose if it has the majority support of the population. This would include, he claims, that the pro-independence deputies elected at Westminster in the next general election refuse to take possession of their positions as a measure of pressure and even the possibility of declare independence unilaterally.
Supporters of independence recognize the difficulty of keeping the population committed to the cause and assure that, if the victory of the SNP in these elections is confirmed, the regional government must take advantage of the moments of greatest support popular. But for now the population remains divided.
Debate in the street
“Brexit has made us all very nervous. I was in favor of independence but I think that currently “It’s not a priority.”assures Fiona Brackleya cultural worker, outside a polling station in the center of Edinburgh. “The only way to get the debate back on the table is if we know that independence will allow us re-enter the European Union”he adds.
Ali Fergusona musician in his 40s, maintains instead that independence has mobilized many voters in these elections and looks hopeful with the holding of a referendum in the short term. “This is one of the issues that sets Scotland apart from UK politics. It is certainly something that people think about and influences when deciding who to vote for”he explains. “For me it is an opportunity to have control over our own decisions. There are other small countries that are doing well and we have natural resources that can be beneficial. It’s not that I have anything against the English, just “I want Scotland to be independent.”sentence.
Subscribe to continue reading
