Beware of the “sudden death” of Putin – who is afraid of being assassinated

“Be careful what you wish for. Putin’s death may solve one problem, but it may also create a dozen others.”

The repeated warnings about – despite being mixed with calls for mobilization – give a new signal: Vladimir Putin is looking more over his shoulder.

He spends more time hiding in shelters because he has fear of being murdered or a coup d’étatadvances . Security around him tightened: more controlled, fewer advisors, fewer exits, limited communication.

But the magazine warns: “Beware of the sudden death of Vladimir Putin.”

This analysis highlights that, in this new, more hidden mode, Putin is not controlling a smooth succession – and that is a big problem.

Why, if the central “gangster” of the Russian political system disappearsthis system becomes more dangerous and more unpredictable. A delicate “black hole”.

And the biggest threat for the President of Russia, it’s not the drones that come from Ukraine: it’s really the internal level, the possibility of an opportunistic and ambitious rival emerging that takes advantage of a window of opportunity that the war and the economy are providing.

Because your loyal allies are loyal…until the moment when state power and control seem so close and attainable, that this loyalty quickly turns into an internal, armed attack. In a coup d’état, probably.

Furthermore, tensions between Russian security services are increasing; the safety of senior officials against assassins is at stake.

Names of the future

There is one name that stands out: Sergei Shoigu. The network that is set up around the secretary of the Russian Security Council and former Minister of Defense. Shoigu continues to have significant influence on Russian security structures. And his departure from the position of Minister of Defense will still be “snapped” during the war in Ukraine.

Other possible successors to Putin: Aleksey Dyumin, former bodyguard and presidential advisor; Sergei Kiriyenko, former prime minister and now deputy chief of staff of the presidency, responsible for the Kremlin’s internal policy, propaganda, Ukraine policy and controlling elections.

Fierce fight

Whoever the next president of Russia is, none solves the central problem of the system, highlights Newsweek: the Putin’s indispensable role as its pillar.

Vladimir Putin is a kind of unifier of factions, using cronyism and threat to keep them balanced and pacified by a consensus that he – and he alone – is the legitimate ruler.

If Putin dies, a fierce fight for control of the Kremlin. Disputes between elites, between oligarchs, tycoons and military personnel could be very “ugly”. A “perfect recipe for chaos”, the consequences of which would not stop on Russian territory.

The successor most likely to survive is the one who can best intimidate others.

A new president who is more peaceful, more democratic, and wants peace in Ukraine may also appear – but it is more likely that the next president will appear among those who adhere to the ideas of the current one: imperial expansionism, anti-Western antagonism, coercive power.

In other words, the continuity of Putin’s regime but with a different face – and probably someone even more dangerous, more ferocious. And someone inexperienced, more unpredictable, and emerged victorious from a fierce internal struggle, feeling capable of ruling over everything in his own way.

Newsweek magazine concludes its analysis: Vladimir Putin’s death is not the death of the system. “Be careful what you wish for. Putin’s death may solve one problem, but it may also create a dozen others.”