Two of the opposition leaders are not moving behind the scenes to contest the presidency of the House against (-AP) in 2027, despite the senator’s gestures of rapprochement with the right. He and the president (PT) to regain his popularity before the election campaign.
Alcolumbre, until then one of the , has worked to re-establish a channel of dialogue with the senator (-RJ) and the right, with the aim of being re-elected to command of the Senate in the next legislature if the.
Opponents say they view this approach with suspicion. They claim that he has already betrayed Lula and the former president (PL) and, therefore, the ideal is to elect one of his own members to command the House. Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) and Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) seek support from their colleagues for the dispute.
The plan should only change, say right-wing senators, if the group is unable to elect enough parliamentarians to form the majority of the Senate in 2027, which could force a new alliance with Alcolumbre, as happened last year.
The series of defeats imposed on the government by Alcolumbre was read by PT and Bolsonaro supporters as an anticipated movement in the race for re-election in 2027 and also a message from the senator, who showed that he has control of the House to help both the government and the opposition.
Government officials also claim that the alliance has .
The president of the Senate made three gestures to the right last week. He acted for the rejection of the (Supreme Federal Court), promised that he could make the new appointment and scheduled the session for the bill that reduces the sentences of those convicted of the coup acts.
In exchange, to bury the Master’s CPI (Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry). Flávio capitalized on the victories and stated that the Lula government was over.
Bolsonaristas interviewed by the report to make possible the setbacks for Lula and say there are no debts to be paid to the senator in the future. On the contrary, the assessment is that he would have stopped the main flags of the right, such as the impeachment of STF ministers and the total amnesty for coup plotters, and that the most recent gestures must be calibrated with this in mind.
“He makes a mistake in this part of sitting on top of impeachment proceedings against Supreme Court ministers. […] The practical consequence is what we see today, an imbalance between the Powers. Davi, it’s not that he became a hero, but I think that yesterday he had a day when God gave him wisdom to help start to restore the credibility of “, stated Flávio after the veto was overturned.
Although they deny an agreement, Bolsonaro supporters privately admit that there are common understandings with Alcolumbre, such as that he should join the STF — something that favors Flávio if he is elected in October.
Alcolumbre told nearby senators that he intended, in fact, to build a bridge with Flávio, but that his gestures to the opposition did not mean that he had definitively chosen a side. He also keeps the channel open with the government and the PT to be re-elected and to arrange a meeting with Lula to “pass the line” on the episode.
For the senators, defining Alcolumbre’s relationship with the opposition or the government still depends on how the president will conduct Planalto’s priority agendas: the end of the , which needs to go through the Chamber first, and the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of Security, shelved by him.
Behind the scenes, right-wing parliamentarians claim that the gestures are insufficient to support Alcolumbre’s re-election. THE Sheet consulted ten influential opposition congressmen, and only one said that the recent defeats of the government sponsored by him pave the way to support him in 2027.
The other nine said that Alcolumbre is not trustworthy and that he could betray them, just as he did with the government. Therefore, they state that they would not change a name aligned to the right, such as Marinho or Tereza, for the re-election of the head of the House.
They stressed, however, that it is too early to make predictions and that the scenario will only become clear after the results of the October election, in which 54 of the 81 seats will be at stake in the Senate.
With the number of STF ministers, the right calculates that it can elect up to 35 senators for the 54 vacancies in dispute. Added to the 10 with a mandate until 2031, they would exceed the majority of 41. A sufficient number to command the House, but less than necessary to remove a minister from the Supreme Court, which requires the favorable vote of 49 senators.
This account, as well as the expectation of power over Flávio, was taken into consideration by Alcolumbre to assert his agenda in Congress and not that of Palácio do Planalto, according to parliamentarians.
His allies say that the chances of being re-elected president are greater if Lula wins, but that it is possible to build a strong candidacy even if Flávio is elected, as the future president will have to negotiate the 2027 Budget and the agendas of a transition administration with him.
