Report from the Brazilian Public Security Forum shows that fear of violence changes the routine of 57% of respondents
The report “Fear of crime and 2026 elections: the triggers of insecurity”released on Sunday (May 10, 2026), shows that 41.2% of Brazilians aged 16 or over recognize the presence of organized criminal groups, such as factions or militias, in the neighborhood where they live. The data indicates that around 68.7 million people live directly with the territorial power exercised by these organizations.
The research was commissioned by the Brazilian Public Security Forum from the Datafolha Institute. The study had a national scope and included a total sample of 2,004 interviews carried out in 137 municipalities from March 9 to 10, 2026. The general margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points, considering a confidence level of 95%. Read (PDF – 852 kB).
The study shows that fear of violence has changed the routine of 57% of Brazilians in the last 12 months. Among the most drastic changes, 36.5% of respondents changed their usual routes and 35.6% stopped going out at night. 33.5% of people said they stopped leaving home with their cell phone for fear of robbery.
According to the report, organized crime in Brazil is no longer a phenomenon concentrated in large capitals and begins to operate through territorial diffusion, capillarization and interiorization.
“Factions such as Red Command and PCC [Primeiro Comando da Capital]which were born in large urban centers, such as Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, expanded their operations to medium and small cities, making use of logistical routes, alliances with local groups, prison dynamics and insertion in illicit and licit markets”says the study.
For 61.4% of those interviewed (42.2 million people), organized crime greatly or moderately influences the decisions and rules of coexistence in their neighborhood.
Academic literature calls this scenario “duopoly of violence”in which the State and crime coexist in the ordering of daily life.
“The presence of organized crime in the neighborhood does not only translate into a risk of victimization, but into concrete regulation of everyday life. The most frequent effects are not those of extortion, but rather those of restriction of movement, fear and self-censorship”says the research.
The report shows that living in a territory with a presence of organized crime impacts the probability of being a victim of violence. While the national average of victimization is 40.1%, in neighborhoods dominated by factions this rate rises to 51.1%.
In these places, the percentage of people who had a family member or acquaintance murdered rose from 13.1% to 17.6%. Victims of digital financial scams jump from 15.8% to 21.4%. Street crimes are also more frequent: cell phone theft increases from 8.3% to 12.1% and armed robbery increases from 3.8% to 6.5%.
