When he took over as prime minister in July 2024, he promised stability in a country that has seen five prime ministers in the past 10 years. Today, many of them until the end of the year, let alone until the next general election, in 2029.
Almost 100 Labor MPs and secretaries of state or to set a timetable for his departure from No 10 Downing Street.
The Thursday that changed everything: The 3 moves on the chessboard
However, three developments of last Thursday (14/5) are more serious.
- First, the resignation of Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is politically positioned to the right of Starmer.
- Secondly, the announcement by the British tax authorities, which “clears” the name of Angela Rayner, who belongs to the left wing of Labor and who resigned in September from the positions of deputy prime minister and housing minister, because she was found not to have paid the legal tax on the purchase of a property – this “stain” has now been removed from her CV, opening the way for her to contest the position Starmer’s.
- The third and most important development is the resignation of Labor MP Josh Simmons, triggering a by-election in his constituency of Makerfield and giving Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, the chance to stand for election to the House. As an MP, Burnham, Starmer’s main rival, who is positioned politically to the left of the British prime minister, may seek to succeed him – as Labor rules state that to run for prime minister, one must be a member of Parliament.
But none of these three contenders for Starmer’s position has officially announced their candidacy, in order to set the succession process in motion. Prime Ministerial circles are reporting that Streeting has failed to gather the 81 signatures of Labor MPs (20% of the total) needed to trigger the succession race.
The unstable factor of the Far Right
Al Carnes, a Labor MP who is also seen as having prime ministerial aspirations, wrote in an op-ed in The New Statesman that “we don’t need more slogans, strategies, press releases and committees. We need action.” However, this action does not seem to be coming soon. One reason may be that it could be weeks or even months before a runoff election is held, which would give Burnham a chance to be elected to parliament. Also, this election could be won by the far-right candidate Reform UK, which, in the recent local elections, showed that it has gained a lot of traction in this constituency.
The succession trap: Why “burns” whoever comes first
But there is another reason why no challenger to Starmer’s position has yet come forward: in British politics, it has traditionally been “burnt” for anyone to take the initiative to topple a prime minister and then run for his position. There is the precedent of Michael Hazeltine, Margaret Thatcher’s defense secretary and Tory “heavy artillery”, who called a Tory general election in 1990 to succeed the Iron Lady, only to see the colorless John Major win it and become prime minister.
More recently, Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson’s finance minister, ousted him as prime minister in 2022, to see Liz Truss elected to the post. Sunak only succeeded her after she resigned, after just 49 days in Downing Street.
The statute-fortress
The succession process in the Labor Party is more complicated than that of the Conservatives. First, 20% of sitting MPs are required, while the Conservatives require 15%. Then again, in Labour’s 126-year history, no party leader has been toppled by an internal party rebellion. In 2016, there was an intra-party challenge to then Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was also leader of the official opposition, but Corbyn was re-elected as Labor leader by party members.
According to Labor Party rules, its leader, whether prime minister or in opposition, has the right to automatically take part in internal party elections for his succession and to be re-elected. A poll for the website LabourList shows that the only one who could beat Starmer in a general election is Burnham, who would receive 61% to 28%. Against Streeting, Starmer would win 53% to 23%, as against Rayner (45% to 41%).
In his 22 months in Downing Street, Starmer has faced a slowing economy that has prevented him from implementing his agenda, as well as accusations of weakness and indecisiveness. He was widely criticized for appointing Peter Mandelson, a friend of convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, as the UK’s ambassador to Washington.
The final straw was Labour’s poor performance in the recent local elections – the party’s worst results in 100 years. Labor’s internal party problems, however, are much older than Starmer’s leadership and concern the “struggle” between the left and center wings of the party.
