Panama Canal
With maritime trade having to use alternative routes, the Panama Canal has already seen an 11% increase in traffic since the start of the conflict in Iran.
When a conflict explodes, there is always someone who profits.
Since the start of the war in Iran on February 28, companies that sell oil and gas, large investment banks and the arms industry have been among the main beneficiaries.
O Panama Canal also came out ahead with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the main maritime route for transporting fuel in the world.
“Conflict and insecurity in Hormuz forced the diversion of routes and the search for safe alternatives”, Eduardo Lugo, president and executive director of the consultancy Maritime & Logistics Consulting Group, explained to BBC Mundo.
One of these alternatives is the Panamanian channel, whose traffic increased by around 11% after the start of the conflict, although, on days of greatest demand, the passage of ships through the sea increased by 20%, according to the Panama Canal Authority.
And, as demand for using the channel grew, prices also increased.
The rates paid by ships depend on the size of the vessel, the volume of cargo and the type of product transported. A gas transport ship, for example, paid 4 million dollars to cross the waterway.
Although this was an exceptional case, some prices to cross the channel have doubled because there is a vacancy auction system that allows companies without advance reservations to cross more quickly.
In this mechanism, the final price paid by a company is directly linked to the urgency of reaching the destination.
The Panama Canal Authority’s chief financial officer, Víctor Vial, told BBC News Mundo (the BBC’s Spanish-language service) that the increase in traffic and additional resources obtained in the auctions indicate that the revenue growth “will be between 10% and 15%although it remains to be seen how long this situation will last.”
Faced with such an unpredictable scenario, Vial warned that, when situations like this happen, “things change very quickly” and, therefore, “we are not yet calculating or changing our projections for the year”.
Asian buyers
“What is really happening is that energy from the United States is replace volumes that were previously sent to Asia from cargo coming from the Gulf”, explains Marc Gilbert, global leader of the Geopolitics Center at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), one of the main maritime transport, cargo and logistics consultancies.
Cargoes of American oil passing through the Panama Canal are close to reach the highest level in four yearswhile Asian refineries try to guarantee supplies in the middle of a conflict whose end no one knows when will come.
Using the canal has increased shipping costs for several reasons, Gilbert told BBC News Mundo.
The journey from the United States to Asian destinations It’s much longerthe crossing toll is higher and the increasing delays at the canal locks, the expert points out, make the operation more expensive compared to the journey through the Strait of Hormuz.
What this situation is showing, says Gilbert, is that when a sea route fails, the entire system needs to adapt.
In these circumstances, he states, companies need to pay more attention to the diversification not only of maritime routes, but of all means of transport used.
Furthermore, this is the time to review storage capacity and stock formation, in addition to incorporate technologies to instantly share data on the location of ships.
As happened during the pandemic and as now with the war in Iran, the balance of global supply chains can be fragile — and any disruption causes effects that are difficult to predict.
The importance of the canal for Panama’s economy
Although it is not the country’s main source of wealth, the Panama Canal is one of its great economic drivers.
Along this route, just 80 kilometers wide, which connects the Atlantic with the Pacific, around 3% of all global maritime trade.
In recent history, the channel has gone through difficult times, such as in 2023, when the country faced an unprecedented drought which affected maritime traffic.
Today, however, the weather has worked in its favor, and the rains have made it possible to better respond to the sudden increase in demand caused by the war in Iran.
And, when the canal obtains better results, the Panamanian economy benefits.
This happens because the Constitution of Panama establishes that the canal must transfer every year to the National Treasury its economic surpluses — that is, net profits — after covering operating costs, investments, operation and maintenance, among others.
In fiscal year 2025, the channel generated revenue of around $5.7 billion. Of this total, the direct contribution to the Panamanian public coffers was approximately 3 billion.
In relation to Panama’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the canal represented a direct contribution of 3.4%.
At first glance, it may not seem like much, but the benefits that the maritime route brings to the country also include indirect contributions related to the entire logistics industry that revolves around the canal, in addition to port and railway activities and the trade generated by the Colón Free Zone.
Although trade is the backbone of the Panamanian economy, the canal is a fundamental piece for the functioning of this entire mechanism.
And, if this year it generates more revenue and greater net profits than in the past, the country will receive an injection of resources that was not anticipated — turning the crisis in the Middle East into an opportunity.
